Pol Watchers

Obama's race is the 'elephant' in the voter booth

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COMING AT 11 P.M.: Find out who leads in Kentucky's Democratic presidential primary

By Linda B. Blackford
lblackford@herald-leader.com

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama’s race and inflammatory racial remarks made by his former preacher negatively affect how likely voters view the candidate, according to a new Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll.

More than one in five likely Democratic voters surveyed said being black hurts Obama’s chances of winning an election in Kentucky, compared to 4 percent who said Obama’s race helps him.

Although more than half of respondents said his race isn’t a factor in the election, many of those surveyed also said racially charged remarks by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright will play an important role as they decide whom to support in the May 20 primary.

Wright’s remarks are important or very important to 43 percent of those polled. Among white voters, his statements were important to 46 percent, compared to only 11 percent of black voters.

“Race is still the elephant in the room, and the Rev. Wright issue hits at remaining racial prejudices and fears that people here might have,” said Saundra Ardrey, head of the political science department at Western Kentucky University.

Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s gender is not a major factor for those surveyed. Eleven percent saw Clinton’s gender as a positive, which was only slightly less than the 14 percent who viewed it as a negative. Clinton’s gender didn’t matter to 63 percent of those polled.

The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic voters was conducted from May 7 through May 9 by Research 2000 of Olney, Md. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Some of the statements made by Wright over many years at his Chicago church included questions about the government’s complicity in the AIDS epidemic, praise for black Muslim leader Louis Farrakhan and criticism over America’s foreign policy.

At first, Obama said he would not disavow Wright; after more public statements in which Wright repeated some of his former opinions, Obama denounced him.

Kentucky’s population is only 8 percent African-American, and many of the state’s voters are older and more traditional. No black candidate has ever been elected to statewide office.

“I’ll be very blunt,” said pollster Del Ali, president of Research 2000. “Even if there wasn’t a Rev. Wright controversy, I think Obama would have a tough time in Kentucky, for obvious reasons.”

Coming Sunday

Beshear's approval rating plummets

Gov. Steve Beshear's approval rating has dipped into Ernie Fletcher territory.

A SurveyUSA poll done for WHAS-TV in Louisville shows Beshear's approval rating at 38 percent, down 8 points from last month and 24 points since January.

Approval ratings for Fletcher, the state's former Republican governor, hit 40 percent only once after May 2005, when his administration was smacked with an investigation of state hiring practices.

Beshear's short tenure has been marked with bad news, ranging from painful state budget cuts to a failed attempt to fill the seat left vacant in the state Senate by Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo with a Democrat.

The automated telephone survey of 600 adults was conducted April 11-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.

- John Stamper

Poll shows Clinton ahead in Kentucky primary; McCain winning in Nov

A new Kentucky poll shows New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton with a substantial early lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in the state's May 20 Democratic presidential primary election, 56 percent to 25 percent.

The survey, conducted by Lexington-based marketing and research firm Preston-Osborne, also shows that the 600 "frequent voters" who participated in the poll solidly favored presumptive Republican nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, over either of the Democrats.

McCain, if the general election were held today, would defeat Clinton, 53 percent to 42 percent and Obama by a greater margin, 60 percent to 29 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

"Kentucky has a history of voting for a more conservative candidate in national elections," said Phil Osborne, the firm's CEO, in a statement. "The Bill Clinton years were an exception, but it appears that the conservative base has come home in at least the presidential campaign."

Osborne added in his statement that "if the numbers don't change between now and November, that could also be a big boost to Sen. McConnell, who is running for re-election."

In November, Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell will face the winner of the May 20 Democratic primary that features seven candidates.

Click here to view Preston Osborne's news release and regional breakdown of the poll.

Broken down by regions, the presidential primary results of the Preston-Osborne poll matches those of a poll from last week conducted by SurveyUSA.

Clinton leads in every region across the state with her best results in Eastern Kentucky's 5th Congressional District, where 70 percent of respondents favored her compared to 9 percent who back Obama.

Obama's best region was Louisville, where he trailed Clinton 40 percent to 45 percent. In the 6th Congressional District that covers Lexington, Clinton leads 53 percent to 25 percent, according to the results.

In the early, head-to-head matchups for the fall general election, Clinton fared better than Obama in every region against McCain except Louisville.

The results show McCain handily defeating Clinton in Western Kentucky's 1st Congressional District and Northern Kentucky, which is the 4th Congressional District. Clinton, meanwhile, polled even with McCain at 47 percent in Eastern Kentucky and slightly ahead, 49 percent to 48 percent in Louisville.

Obama would defeat McCain there 52 percent to 47 percent but lose by more than a 2-1 ratio in every other area of the state, the poll showed.

That dovetails with some of the early lines put out by all three campaigns. Republicans, such as McConnell, have predicted that McCain will carry Kentucky easily in the fall regardless of the Democratic nominee.

Clinton and her supporters in recent visits to Kentucky have expressed confidence that the Bluegrass state will back a Clinton on the ballot just as voters did in 1992 and 1996 when Bill Clinton carried the state.

And Obama's supporters have said they expected to be down by big numbers in early polls because that's been the theme throughout the race. Matthew Barzun, a key Kentucky supporter for Obama, recently told Lexington advocates not to be concerned about those polls because that will change once voters hear directly from the candidate.

- Ryan Alessi

SurveyUSA: McCain trumps Clinton and Obama in Ky.

SurveyUSA released new polling numbers Wednesday that show Republican presidential contender John McCain with a double-digit lead over Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a hypothetical general election.

The automated phone survey of 535 registered voters showed McCain leading Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent, with 4 percent undecided. He leads Obama 64 percent to 28 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

In the head-to-head match-up between McCain and Obama, McCain has gained 10 percentage points since last month, while Obama has dropped 5 points. Interestingly, McCain actually has higher support among Democrats than Obama.

Meanwhile, the McCain/Clinton match-up shows both candidates edging up slightly in the past month.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

(Hat Tip: KyPolitics.org)

- John Stamper

Beshear has 62 percent approval rating

A new Survey USA poll commissioned for WHAS-TV in Louisville shows Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear with a 62 percent approval rating. The automated telephone survey of 600 adults showed 27 percent disapprove of the newly-elected Democratic governor's performance and 11 percent are undecided.

Half of all Republicans approved of Beshear, compared to 71 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of independents.

Former Gov. Ernie Fletcher had a 32 percent approval rating in November, according to Survey USA.

- John Stamper

(Hat Tip: Page One)

SurveyUSA poll on McConnell mirrors H-L/WTVQ poll

SurveyUSA's new poll shows Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell's approval rating at 44 percent and disapproval at 47 percent.

While it's the first time that survey organization's results have shown McConnell with a higher disapproval rating, it's not a first for any Kentucky poll. The Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll had McConnell's approval rating at 45 and disapproval at 46.

McConnell began airing re-election commercials earlier this month -- nearly a full year before he will appear on the general election ballot.

But while he has collected about $9 million in re-election campaign funds, the Democrats are still waiting for one of their own to formally announce a challenge to the sitting U.S. Senate minority leader.

Recently re-elected state auditor Crit Luallen, outgoing Attorney General Greg Stumbo and Louisville lawyer and Iraq war veteran Andrew Horne are in various stages of considering making the run.

Newly-elected Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear recently declined to say which of those potential candidates might fare best against McConnell who beat Beshear in the 1996 Senate race.

- Ryan Alessi

A note about polling

Now that the election results have sunk in, we thought we'd see how they matched up with pre-election polling, including the Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll. Here's how they break down:

With 99.9 percent of precincts reporting, Gov.-elect Steve Beshear got 58.7 percent of the vote, compared to 41.3 percent for Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Beshear's margin of victory was 17.4 points.

The final H-L/WTVQ poll, conducted by Research 2000, showed the race at 55-40, with 5 percent undecided. If you allocate the undecideds based on the ultimate outcome (that's what pollsters tell you to do), our poll would have shown the race at 57.9-42.1, a 15.8 point margin. That puts the H-L/WTVQ poll 1.6 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final Rasmussen Reports poll showed the race at 54-39, with 7 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 58.1-41.9, a 16.2 point margin. That puts the Rasmussen Reports poll 1.2 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final SurveyUSA poll showed the race at 59-39, with 2 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 60.2-39.8, a 20.4 point margin. That puts the SurveyUSA poll 3 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll showed the race at 56.2-33.4, with 10.4 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 62.3-37.7, a 24.6 point margin. That puts the Bluegrass Poll 7.2 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

So, Rasmussen was the most accurate poll, followed closely by the H-L/WTVQ poll.

If you're uncomfortable allocating the undecided voters and would rather throw them out, the H-L/WTVQ poll and Rasmussen Reports poll tie as the most accurate. The 15 point margin in those polls was 2.4 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome, compared to 2.6 points for SurveyUSA, and 5.4 points for the Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

Needless to say, we're pleased with the accuracy of our polling and hope to be so lucky next time.

- John Stamper

SurveyUSA: Beshear up by 20 in final poll

WHAS-TV in Louisville reports this morning that Democrat Steve Beshear leads Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher by 20 points in a SurveyUSA poll released one day before voters cast their ballots.

The automated phone survey of 552 likely voters shows Beshear getting support from 59 percent of those surveyed, compared to 39 percent for Fletcher. Two percent were undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

SurveyUSA concludes its analysis of the race with this nugget: "Because 5 competing pollsters worked the contest, and all have published results showing the Democrat with a commanding lead, the margin of victory for Beshear may be less than 20 points on Election Day, to the extent Democrats take victory for granted and fail to turnout."

Last week, SurveyUSA showed Beshear with a 24 point lead. The prior week, they pegged the race at 20 points. A Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll taken two weeks ago showed Beshear with a 15 point lead.

- John Stamper

Race for secretary of state close, new poll shows

FRANKFORT -- Republican Secretary of State incumbent Trey Grayson is facing a strong challenge from Democratic challenger Bruce Hendrickson, says the latest Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

The newspaper’s poll of 700 registered voters statewide shows Grayson with 40 percent of the likely vote compared to 36 percent for Hendrickson. The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percent. The paper said the race is "almost a dead heat.”

About 24 percent of the respondents said they were undecided about the Nov. 6 race.

A Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll conducted Oct. 22-24 showed Grayson at 45 percent and Hendrickson at 39 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

Grayson is a lawyer from Northern Kentucky. Hendrickson teaches school in Pineville. The office of secretary of state takes care of elections and business records.

--Jack Brammer