Pol Watchers

McConnell's poll shows 11-point lead over Lunsford

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell released results of his campaign's poll from earlier this week that shows the incumbent U.S. senator has maintained a double-digit lead over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford.

In the survey of 600 registered voters conducted by McConnell's polling firm Voter/Consumer Research, McConnell would receive 50 percent of the vote compared to 39 percent for Lunsford, a Louisville businessman.
The survey, taken June 15-17, has a margin of error of 4.1 percent, according to McConnell's campaign polling memo.

This comes just a day after a SurveyUSA poll showed McConnell clinging to a four-point lead. It's also the second time in as many months that McConnell has released to reporters his internal polling on the heels of another poll showing McConnell trailing or holding a slim lead.

McConnell's internal poll from May also showed him leading Lunsford by 11 points, which came after the Washington-based Rasmussen Reports telephone survey  came back with Lunsford polling five points ahead of McConnell, the Republican Senate Leader.

McConnell's pollster explained the difference in results by pointing regional differences, which he argued "run counter to election returns from the past two decades."

"There has been public polling in Kentucky showing the Senate race to be very competitive, if not dead even," wrote pollster Jan R. van Lohuizen. "These polls have shown Senator McConnell underperforming in Louisville, but doing very well in the Eastern Kentucky counties that make up the Charleston and Knoxville (TV markets)."

Click here to see McConnell's polling memo.

The poll also showed McConnell with a 58 percent approval rating, according to van Lohuizen's poll. That is ten points higher than a Herald-Leader/WKYT survey from early May.

- Ryan Alessi

SurveyUSA: McConnell and Lunsford in tight race

A new SurveyUSA poll conducted on behalf of three TV stations shows Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell with a four point lead over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford. McConnell leads 50 percent to 46 percent.

The automated telephone poll of 626 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Geographically, McConnell leads in all areas of the state except Louisville, where Lunsford has a 13 point advantage. Both men are from Louisville.

Lunsford leads in the under-34 age category, while McConnell does better with older voters. McConnell leads among men and women.

- John Stamper

(H/T: Page One Kentucky)

Kentuckians favor higher cigarette tax

Poll results: Cigarette tax increase

By Sarah Vos
SVOS@HERALD-LEADER.COM

Kentuckians want a tax increase.

A majority of 600 likely voters surveyed in a Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll said they favor increasing the state’s cigarette tax by 70 cents to $1 a pack, a proposal unsuccessfully pushed by Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear during the 2008 session of the General Assembly.

The poll found that 55 percent support the tax increase, 34 percent oppose it and 11 percent were not sure.

A majority of Democrats and independents support the tax increase, while a plurality of Republicans — 47 percent — oppose it.

Most survey respondents also disagreed with the Republican-controlled state Senate’s decision to nix a 25-cent increase in the cigarette tax that cleared the Democratic-controlled state House.

Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed disagreed with the legislature’s decision, compared with 36 percent who agreed. The poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Olney, Md., from May 7 to May 9. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The results reflect voters’ frustration with the state budget, said Scott Lasley, a professor of political science at Western Kentucky University.

The budget passed by the legislature has forced universities to raise tuition and halt faculty raises; in addition, budgets for human services and other departments have been cut.

Raising cigarette taxes is more palatable to voters than other taxes. “This is one that people can choose to pay or not,” Lasley said. “And that makes it attractive, particularly to non-smokers.”

But voter support doesn’t always translate into legislative victories.

“The Republican majority in the Senate expressed no interest at all in raising the cigarette tax during the recent legislative session,” Beshear said. “Only time will tell whether those circumstances will change.”

Kentuckians want casinos on ballot

By Janet Patton
JPATTON1@HERALD-LEADER.COM

A Herald-Leader poll of 600 likely voters, conducted in early May, found that 81 percent disagreed with the General Assembly’s decision not to approve a constitutional amendment allowing casinos.

A slight plurality would vote against such a ballot measure, though.

Those numbers are virtually unchanged from a similar poll in September.

Proponents of expanding gambling, particularly the horse industry, said that shows the debate should continue.

“Kentuckians want their voice heard on this issue,” said Patrick Neely, spokesman for the Kentucky Equine Education Project. “Overwhelmingly, they say they want to make the final decision.”

But casino opponents said the numbers show Kentuckians have spoken and have been heard.

“The reason the measure didn’t get on the ballot is because (lawmakers) heard from their constituents very loudly and very clearly that they didn’t want it on the ballot,” said John-Mark Hack, spokesman for Say No to Casinos.

Martin Cothran, policy analyst for The Family Foundation, said the consistently even division on how people would vote on an amendment indicates not many people were swayed one way or the other on gambling itself.

“I don’t know that a lot of people heard a lot of the arguments on either side. All they saw was the political gamesmanship,” Cothran said.

House Speaker Jody Richards, D-Bowling Green, said Wednesday that at the start of the session in January he expected the House to approve a casino bill.

But he said House members, who are all up for re-election, said that except for Lexington and counties along the Ohio River they were not hearing support. “The rest of the state had a real resistance to it,” Richards said.

He said the split between support for putting an amendment on the ballot and actually voting for it could indicate people “want the issue closed. I think people are tired of talking about it.”

Richards said that he is willing to push for a measure “but I’m governed by my members a good deal.”

Sen. David Boswell, D-Owensboro, and a candidate for Congress, said that even if he’s back in the state Senate next year he doesn’t expect to file casino legislation again. “I’ve pushed it about as far as I can. Somebody else is going to have to push it,” Boswell said.

Gov. Steve Beshear, who campaigned on bringing casino gambling to Kentucky, has said he still supports the issue, but he hasn’t outlined his plans.

Beshear, who is vacationing in Florida this week, could not be reached for comment.

The next opportunity to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot would be November 2010.

Poll results: Casino amendment   

Other poll stories

Only one in five approve of lawmaker's performance

DOWNLOAD FULL POLL RESULTS

By Jack Brammer
JBRAMMER@HERALD-LEADER.COM

FRANKFORT -- Two of every three Kentucky voters don’t like the way the Kentucky legislature is doing its job, a new poll shows.

The public’s job-approval rating for the General Assembly appears to be worsening. A similar poll conducted last October showed 44 percent of likely voters in Kentucky gave thumbs down to the legislature’s performance.

The latest Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll showed 66 percent disapprove. Only 22 percent approved and 12 percent were not sure.

“That is pretty darn high for disapproval. It’s a little below the worst I’ve ever seen for any state,” said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, an Olney, Md., firm that conducted the May 7-9 telephone poll of 600 Kentuckians who vote regularly in state elections. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Disapproval ratings for state legislatures usually hover around 50 percent, Ali said. “If I were a student coming home from college and had to show my parents my GPA and it was this, I’d throw it in the trash can.”

CONTINUE READING STORY

More poll numbers coming at 6 p.m. and midnight

Kentucky.com will have a story on Gov. Steve Beshear's job-approval rating at 6 p.m. and a report on the Kentucky General Assembly's job performance at midnight.

- John Stamper

McConnell leads potential Democratic challengers by double digits

APPROVAL RATING REMAINS BELOW 50 PERCENT

Download full poll results on McConnell

Download full poll results on Democratic U.S. Senate primary

By Jack Brammer
jbrammer@herald-leader.com

Bruce Lunsford holds a comfortable lead over Greg Fischer in the Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate that Kentucky voters will decide May 20, a new poll shows.

But both Democrats would lose to Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell by double digits if the November general election were held today, says the Herald-Leader/ WKYT Kentucky Poll.

Still, McConnell’s job-approval rating remains below 50 percent, signaling a rare potential weakness for the Republican leader of the U.S. Senate.

Lunsford, a Louisville businessman who ran unsuccessfully last year for governor, leads Fischer, also a Louisville businessman, 43 percent to 23 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

Five other Democrats in the race lag considerably.

Name recognition appears to be the major reason for Lunsford’s 20-point lead over Fischer, said Joe Gershtenson, director of Eastern Kentucky University’s Center for Kentucky History and Politics.

“Lunsford has been in two races for governor,” Gershtenson said. “This is Fischer’s first statewide race. It takes time to build up name recognition.”

The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic voters found that 47 percent of respondents have no opinion of Fischer, compared with 35 percent for Lunsford. Lunsford outdrew Fischer among men, women, whites, blacks and various age groups.

Fischer came closest to Lunsford among respondents in the 45-to-59 age group — 39 percent for Lunsford and 25 percent for Fischer.

The poll was conducted May 7-9 by Research 2000 of Olney, Md., and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Lunsford leads Fischer by 20 points

COMING UP: Find out how Lunsford and Fischer stack-up against McConnell at midnight.

DOWNLOAD COMPLETE POLL RESULTS

FRANKFORT — Bruce Lunsford holds a comfortable lead over Greg Fischer in the Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate that Kentucky voters will decide May 20, a new poll shows.

Lunsford, a Louisville businessman who ran unsuccessfully last year for governor, leads Fischer, also a Louisville businessman, 43 percent to 23 percent in the Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll.

Another 14 percent of likely Democratic voters were undecided or wanted to vote for a candidate who has withdrawn from the race.

Five other Democrats in the race running limited campaigns lag considerably. Prospect physician Michael Cassaro and perennial candidate David L. Williams of Glasgow each garnered 5 percent, while Amazon.com warehouse employee and convenience store worker James E. Rice of Campbellsville and Manchester attorney Kenneth Stepp each amassed 4 percent.  Former U.S. Postal Service employee David Wylie of Harrodsburg got 2 percent. Nine percent of the poll respondents favored others.

Name recognition appears to be the major reason for Lunsford’s 20-point lead over Fischer, said Joe Gershtenson, director of Eastern Kentucky University’s Center for Kentucky History and Politics.

“Lunsford has been in two races for governor,” Gershtenson said. “This is Fischer’s first statewide race.  It takes time to build up name recognition.”

The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic voters found that 47 percent of respondents have no opinion of Fischer, compared to 35 percent for Lunsford.

Lunsford outdrew Fischer among men, women, whites, blacks and various age groups.  Fischer came closest to Lunsford among respondents in the 45-to-59 age group — 39 percent for Lunsford and 25 percent for Fischer.

The winner in the Democratic primary will take on Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell of Louisville, who faces token opposition in Williamsburg trucker Daniel Essek  in next Tuesday’s GOP primary election.

The poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Olney, Md., from May 7 to May 9 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

Pollster Del Ali, president of Research 2000, described Lunsford’s lead as “commanding,” but said there is still time for the race to tighten. He added that critical attacks by each campaign in its final days probably would offset each other.

Lunsford, who has been the target of Fischer TV ads regarding Lunsford’s past business practices and his 2003 support of Republican gubernatorial nominee Ernie Fletcher, held a 42 percent favorable rating to Fischer’s 37 percent.

Lunsford’s unfavorable rating was 23 percent, compared to Fischer’s 16 percent.

Those surveyed also believe Lunsford is more likely to “bring needed change to Washington and Kentucky.” They favored Lunsford 46 percent to Fischer’s 39 percent, with 15 percent not sure.

Lunsford led Fischer among both sexes, races and age groups. Lunsford got his lowest support on the change question among women, but edged out Fischer 43 percent to 41 percent.

- Jack Brammer

Economy is top election issue in Ky.

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By Ryan Alessi
ralessi@herald-leader.com

It’s the economy, stupid. Again.

The same issue that became the focus of Bill Clinton’s upstart 1992 presidential campaign is overwhelmingly the top concern of Kentuckians in the 2008 race, according to a Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll.

And Kentuckians — a plurality of whom voted for Clinton in November 1992 — again say a Clinton is the best of the presidential hopefuls to handle U.S. economic problems.

Thirty-eight percent of 600 likely Kentucky voters surveyed chose Democratic U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as the most capable candidate on economic policies. Nearly half of Democrats surveyed picked her, compared with 28 percent for Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.

“This is one of these areas where she is really benefiting from Bill Clinton being in the White House and the country enjoying very good economic times during his terms,” said Joe Gershtenson, director of the Center for History and Politics at Eastern Kentucky University.

Bill Clinton used the mantra, “It’s the economy, stupid,” to defeat President George H.W. Bush in 1992.

Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, meanwhile, was Kentuckians’ top choice of the three to manage the conflict in Iraq and ward off the threat of terrorism, according to the telephone poll, conducted May 7-9.

Research 2000, an Olney, Md.-based firm, conducted the survey, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

While Democrats, Republicans and independents all picked the economy as their top issue, they agreed on very little after that.

Clinton creaming Obama in Ky.

MCCAIN LEADS CLINTON AND OBAMA BY DOUBLE DIGITS

DOWNLOAD FULL PRESIDENTIAL POLL RESULTS

By Ryan Alessi
ralessi@herald-leader.com

U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton enters the final week before Kentucky's May 20 Democratic presidential primary with a commanding 27 percentage point lead over U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, a new poll shows.

She leads the Illinois senator 58 percent to 31 percent, with 11 percent uncommitted, according to a Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll of 500 probable Democratic voters.

But either Democratic candidate would trail the expected Republican nominee, John McCain, in the state by double digits if the November general election were held today, reveals a companion survey of 600 likely voters from all parties.

The results reinforce the expectation that Obama will lose Kentucky, even as he seems on the verge of securing the Democratic nomination.

Also, the numbers put into doubt whether Kentucky will be a battleground state in the fall. McCain leads Obama by 25 percentage points and Clinton by 12. This could bode well for McCain, since the state has backed the winning presidential candidate in every race since 1964.

"This is a tough state for a Democrat for president," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, which conducted the surveys. "If Obama's sitting down with (his chief strategist) David Axelrod going over the electoral map in the fall, Kentucky isn't part of the equation. I think with Hillary it could have been."

The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted between May 7 and May 9 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. The poll of 600 likely general election voters has a 4-point error margin.

Obama's campaign has long downplayed expectations in the Bluegrass State, as well as in neighboring West Virginia, where Democrats go to the polls Tuesday.

"€œSen. Obama is certainly the underdog in Kentucky," said Obama campaign spokesman Clark Stevens. "President Clinton and Sen. Clinton have been campaigning here for two decades. And people in Kentucky are just now getting to know Sen. Obama."

Stevens said Obama'€™s goal in these states is to personally deliver his message of change and to introduce himself to Kentuckians, which he will do at a Louisville rally Monday and at yet-to-be-announced stops Tuesday.

Ali said Obama could chip into Clinton's sizable lead, especially if some Democrats are persuaded by his leads among superdelegates as well as the popular vote, the number of states won and among total delegates needed to win the nomination.

"€œI actually think this polling shows an improvement for Obama,"€ Ali said. "If we had polled prior to the (May 6) primary in Indiana and North Carolina, my guess is that Hillary would have been over 60 percent."