Pol Watchers

Blog Watch: 7/24/08

With 103 days to go until Election Day, the chatter of Kentucky's political bloggers is cranking up as summer gives way to Fancy Farm -- the official start of the fall campaign season. Here's a peek at what's on their minds.

• Politicker KY notes that U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth remains the only Kentucky Democrat on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's ad list.

• In the opinion of Page One, Yarmuth's Republican challenger, Anne Northup, is "in the deep end of the pool without floaties" because it has sent out an e-mail touting the work of a conservative blogger,

• Meanwhile, the previously mentioned conservative political blogger, bluegrassredstate.com, wonders why only three of Kentucky's congressmen signed a letter asking U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to allow a vote on a bill that would expand oil drilling in Alaska.

• Over at the recently resuscitated BlugrassReport.org, complaints abound about how the big bad MSM is treating Gov. Steve Beshear.

• Speaking of Beshear, Kentucky Progress speculates that Democratic Rep. Frank Rasche's apparent move to the Department of Education is the first step in the governor's plan to "behead" Education Commissioner Jon Draud, a former Republican lawmaker.

• Regarding the U.S. Senate race, Barefoot and Progressive accuses Politicker KY of penning a "hacktacular post" that declares that Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell holds a "solid lead" over Democrat Bruce Lunsford, even though the post only cites an internal poll conducted by McConnell to support the statement.

• Meanwhile, BluegrassRoots contends that McConnell is "on the ropes." What's their evidence? Pollster.com says the election is only "leaning" for McConnell. For the record, an average of existing polls shows McConnell up by 6.5 points.

• And The Arena reports that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer believes the Kentucky Senate race is even or close.

• KyPolitics.org is intrigued by the salacious news that police have seized the computers of Campbell County Democratic Party Chairman Ken Mullikan.

• NKY Politics reports that the local party, which is "reeling from news that its former chairman is tied to a criminal  investigation involving Internet sex chat rooms," has selected Sue Orth of Cold Spring to replace Mullikan.

• Lastly, The Rural Democrat looks to be hanging up his blogging hat.

- John Stamper

State ends block on blogs

Reversing a policy set by former Gov. Ernie Fletcher's administration, state-owned computers used by executive branch employees can now access blogs, said Jill Midkiff, spokeswoman for the Finance and Administration Cabinet.

The state had banned access to most blogs, excluding those operated by newspaper and television companies, since June 2006.

"We don't believe it is state government's role to distinguish between which news source is legitimate and which is illegitimate," said Jonathan Miller, secretary of the cabinet. "For the most part, we are leaving an open Internet."

Although state workers can access the sites, they are not allowed to comment on blogs during working hours and should only access blogs for work-related reasons while on the clock, Midkiff said.

Workers are free to look at any blog they like, provided it doesn't contain pornographic material or other banned content, during breaks and lunch hours, she said.

"We'll be sending out a new acceptable use policy for workers to sign," Midkiff said.

Mark Nickolas, founder of the now-defunct BluegrassReport.org, sued the state, claiming the blog-ban was unconstitutional. The ban took effect shortly after Nickolas, the former campaign manager of Democrat Ben Chandler, was quoted criticizing Fletcher in the New York Times.

In July, Michael Inman, the state's former technology commissioner, said in a sworn statement that the blog ban was ordered by Robbie Rudolph, Fletcher's executive cabinet secretary, to retaliate against Nickolas.

"It was apparent that the state had intentionally targeted BluegrassReport.org and had blocked the category of blogs and other categories of Web sites in an attempt to disguise that fact," Inman said in his statement.

Nickolas' lawsuit is still pending in federal court.

- John Stamper

A note about polling

Now that the election results have sunk in, we thought we'd see how they matched up with pre-election polling, including the Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll. Here's how they break down:

With 99.9 percent of precincts reporting, Gov.-elect Steve Beshear got 58.7 percent of the vote, compared to 41.3 percent for Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Beshear's margin of victory was 17.4 points.

The final H-L/WTVQ poll, conducted by Research 2000, showed the race at 55-40, with 5 percent undecided. If you allocate the undecideds based on the ultimate outcome (that's what pollsters tell you to do), our poll would have shown the race at 57.9-42.1, a 15.8 point margin. That puts the H-L/WTVQ poll 1.6 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final Rasmussen Reports poll showed the race at 54-39, with 7 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 58.1-41.9, a 16.2 point margin. That puts the Rasmussen Reports poll 1.2 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final SurveyUSA poll showed the race at 59-39, with 2 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 60.2-39.8, a 20.4 point margin. That puts the SurveyUSA poll 3 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll showed the race at 56.2-33.4, with 10.4 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 62.3-37.7, a 24.6 point margin. That puts the Bluegrass Poll 7.2 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

So, Rasmussen was the most accurate poll, followed closely by the H-L/WTVQ poll.

If you're uncomfortable allocating the undecided voters and would rather throw them out, the H-L/WTVQ poll and Rasmussen Reports poll tie as the most accurate. The 15 point margin in those polls was 2.4 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome, compared to 2.6 points for SurveyUSA, and 5.4 points for the Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

Needless to say, we're pleased with the accuracy of our polling and hope to be so lucky next time.

- John Stamper

The Nation features Kentucky activists in cover story

The October issue of the liberal magazine The Nation features a story titled "Kentucky at War." The piece chronicles Kentucky's anti-war movement and its mission of unseating U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., in 2008.

Several Kentucky natives -- including Jim Pence, Matt Gunterman and Shawn Dixon -- who operate liberal blogs are featured prominently in the lengthy cover story.

The article gives their blogs credit for having "inspirited Kentucky activists" and "pushed the state's more established media to take notice of the progressive groundswell."

- John Stamper

Blogging the Bluegrass

Here's a look at what's on the minds of Kentucky political bloggers. You can find links to 40 Kentucky political blogs in the right column of this page.

• Lawmakers should vote against the "Coal Company Crazy Check Act of 2007," says Kentucky Progress.

• BluegrassReport.org points out that Gov. Ernie Fletcher promised in a 2003 TV ad to create "more than 100,000 good jobs." It hasn't happened yet.

• DitchMitchKY analyzes the latest approval ratings for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

• The Conservative Edge wants Democratic candidate for governor Steve Beshear to take a pledge.

• When historians look back on the "sordid mess" of Fletcher's administration, Lt. Gov. Steve Pence will be a "lone beacon of integrity and decency," says StraightNFlush.

• The WHAS11 Political Blog reports that former Democratic Lt. Gov. Steve Henry is facing more legal problems.

• N. Ky. Politics offers a recap of a Kenton County Democrat Party picnic.

• Hillbilly Report has "Ernie Fletcher's Ten Commandments."

• Beshear's first TV commercial "lacks edge" and gives the appearance that Beshear is trying to "sit on his lead over Fletcher," according to KyPolitics.org.

• Page One wonders if House Speaker Jody Richards' support of energy incentives will create a challenger in his next election.

- John Stamper

Chandler won't rule out run against McConnell

WKYT-TV's Bill Bryant reports on his blog today that U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Ky., would not rule out a run against U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., in 2008 during a taping of "Kentucky Newsmakers."

"Chandler indicated that’s not the direction he’s pointing right now, but said he’s learned not to rule anything out," Bryant reports.

- John Stamper

BluegrassReport blogger leaving Kentucky

Political blogger Mark Nickolas will move to Helena, Montana next week, he confirmed today in a telephone interview.

Nickolas, who authors the Democratic blog BluegrassReport.org, will continue to update the blog from Montana during the immediate future. He is exploring other long-term options, including selling the blog or transforming it into a publication focused on national politics, he said.

BluegrassReport has had more than 1.8 million visits and more than 5 million page views since launching on June 12, 2005.

"It's been a really good run," Nickolas said. "BluegrassReport has accomplished a lot and hopefully will continue to accomplish a lot."

A controversial figure, Nickolas has been highly critical of Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher and Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Lundergan.

The blog's traffic increased dramatically after it gained national attention in 2006 when Fletcher's administration began blocking state workers from accessing it and other sites. A lawsuit filed by Nickolas against Fletcher is still pending in federal court.

In January, Nickolas was indicted by a Franklin County grand jury on charges of failing to pay his state income taxes over a three year period. The indictment was later dismissed after Nickolas proved he had paid his income taxes in December of 2006.

Nickolas said the indictment was retribution for his criticism of Fletcher. "What this administration has done to me and others is reprehensible," he said.

Still, Nickolas said his decision to leave the state was not heavily influenced by the legal action. Instead, he said the decision of U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler to forego a run for governor sealed his decision.

"If there was any one reason why we both stayed here for the past few years, it was the possibility that Ben would run for governor," he said.

Nickolas was Chandler's campaign manager during his failed bid for governor in 2003.

Nickolas and his significant other, Chantel McCormick, do not have jobs lined up in Montana, he said. McCormick is a native of the state.

"We have a lot of friends up there," he said.

McCormick is a political fund-raising consultant who last worked for State Treasurer Jonathan Miller, who withdrew from the gubernatorial primary earlier this month. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Steve Beshear said today he wants Miller to be named chairman of the state Democratic Party next week.

UPDATE 9:40 p.m.: Kentucky's political bloggers have begun offering their reaction to the news that Nickolas is leaving Kentucky. Here are some links:

Ditch Mitch KY: "Today, Kentucky has an extremely healthy and active lefty blogosphere, and that’s been made possible by the example and work of Mark Nickolas. He made the mainstream media see and take seriously the possibilities of blogs."

Hillbilly Report: "Mark was my inspiration to start blogging at the age of 66 and this Hillbilly will really miss Mark. Best of luck to you Mark."

Kentucky Women: "Operating under scrutiny after being indicted for failure to pay taxes, although the indictment was later dismissed, Nickolas remained true to form in his attacks on both republicans and democrats."

On the Right!: "Although Mark and I disagreed on most issues he was very successful in stimulating political discourse in the Commonwealth."

The Rural Democrat: "I think BGR went beyond simply sharing a point of view, I think it shook most of our Internet cruising political junkies to their knees. It had an effect on me that was pure anger and shock."

The Kentucky Democrat: "This is sad news especially given the revolution he started here in the Commonwealth. What Mark has done for this state has been amazing. He took on Ernie Fletcher and Jerry Lundergan. He took on Bruce Lunsford."

And here's what Nickolas posted on his blog.

- John Stamper

Judge holds hearing on blogger's lawsuit

FRANKFORT -- A federal judge today held a hearing on a lawsuit that claims Gov. Ernie Fletcher’s administration unconstitutionally blocked state workers’ access to a political blog because it was critical of the governor.

U.S. District Judge Karen Caldwell did not immediately rule on a motion by Mark Nickolas to issue a preliminary injunction against the administration or the administration’s motion to dismiss the lawsuit.

With Fletcher’s Chief of Staff Stan Cave present in the court room, Caldwell asked attorneys for Nickolas and the administration their thoughts on a possible jury trial.

Greg Beck, an attorney for Nickolas with the Washington, D.C.-based Public Citizen, said it’s an important case and that “decision-makers” probably should be questioned about its policy of blocking political blogs while permitting the use of traditional news sites.

Jennifer Moore, a Louisville attorney who is working with Public Citizen on the lawsuit, said Nickolas’ attorney possibly would want to question the governor.

If there is a jury trial, the court should make sure information sought is focused “and not a wild goose chase,” said David Fleenor, an attorney for the governor.

Nickolas filed the lawsuit last July after the Fletcher administration blocked state workers’ access to his site, www.bluegrassreport.org, on June 21, a day after Nickolas was quoted in a New York Times article criticizing the Republican governor who had been indicted on three criminal misdemeanor charges of violating state personnel laws. The charges were later dismissed after Fletcher and state prosecutors reached a settlement.

Nickolas managed the 2003 gubernatorial campaign of Democrat Ben Chandler, who lost to Fletcher but later was elected to Congress.

The Fletcher administration contends that it was not targeting Nickolas’ blog, but had formulated a policy to add to a list of sites banned on state employees' computers, including gambling and pornographic sites.

Nickolas maintains the state’s blocking of his site constitutes content-based discrimination.

Listed as defendants in the lawsuit are Fletcher, Finance Secretary John Farris and Executive Cabinet Secretary Robbie Rudolph.

--Jack Brammer

Blogging the Bluegrass

A WEEKLY ROUNDUP OF POSTS BY KENTUCKY'S POLITICAL BLOGGERS

• Jessamine County Attorney Brian Goettl, who blogs at The Conservative Edge, is considering a run for Attorney General, according to David Adams at Kentucky Progress.
• Meanwhile, Goettl is highly critical of U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell and U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, two leading state Republicans who haven't publicly endorsed Fletcher's re-election bid. He goes so far as to call McConnell Kentucky's Wizard of Oz.
• Just because Gov. Ernie Fletcher can't win doesn't mean that Democrats can't lose, says KYKurmudgeon Larry Dale Keeling.
• Fletcher's former press secretary, Brett Hall, launched a new site Saturday called KyPolitics.org. In his opening column analyzing the governor's race, Hall has this to say about Fletcher's political nemesis, Attorney General Greg Stumbo:

The AG may have some very well-known personal and ethical flaws, still he possesses as sharp a political sense as anyone in Kentucky, with the notable exception of U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell. In the waning hours of a campaign, votes can shift as the sharper instincts shift into gear. It’s akin to watching two coaches battle it out in the final quarter of a basketball game. The winning coach may not have the best team but he knows how to use the clock and his opponent’s weaknesses to his advantage.

Greg Stumbo, with the exception of Governor Ernie Fletcher, reportedly wants to be governor more than anyone in this race. He’ll do whatever it takes to win. Bet on it.

• Jonathan Miller is the preferred Democratic gubernatorial hopeful of UK Dems.
• Mark Nickolas says Bruce Lunsford is a charlatan on BluegrassReport.org.
• At N. Ky. Politics, Pat Crowley wonders why so many Northern Kentucky  Republicans love Ernie.
• McConnell is surrendering his conservative principles by conditionally backing a minimum wage hike, according to Martin Cothran at vere loqui.

- John Stamper

Blogging the Bluegrass

Here's a look at the latest from Kentucky's political blogs.

• The Conservative Edge has an interview with Republican gubernatorial hopeful Billy Harper of Paducah. In the interview, Harper says he is opposed to expanded gambling, doesn't support raising the minimum wage and will work to eliminate the alternative minimum tax on businesses. His stance on gambling has formed since October, when he told the Herald-Leader it was "too early" to take a position on the issue.

• After watching Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth," BlueGrassRoots has this unflattering thought about how President George Bush would come across in his own movie.

• On The Right! gave Courier-Journal editorial writer David Hawpe its Stupid Comment of the Day award last Wednesday for saying this:

Kentuckians tend to be a contented lot. They like their state, and there's a lot to like. But they don't want much of anything to change, despite the fact that survival and success in coming decades will require precisely that. Some politician with vision should help them change their minds.

• BluegrassReport.org takes issue with a column by CNHI's Ronnie Ellis, who suggested that U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler's decision to take a closer look at seeking the Democratic nomination for governor over Thanksgiving weekend was really all about buying time to put together a suitable alternative ticket. Blogger Mark Nickolas says Ellis is wrong and that "Ben is genuinely conflicted over the decision."  Either way, it's a safe bet that we'll be hearing from Chandler very soon.

• TV journalist Mark Hebert's On The Mark accuses officials with the Kentucky Justice Cabinet of "amateurish behavior" at a press conference last week.

• The Kentucky Enquirer's Patrick Crowley, who writes N. Ky. Politics, says "a source" tells him former Democratic governor Brereton Jones will not run for governor. (By the way, Pol Watchers adheres to the same sourcing standards as the Herald-Leader, so you won't be seeing many -- if any -- anonymous sources on this site.)

• Over at Blue Grass, Red State, blogger Jefferson Poole proves his conservatism by refusing to turn on the heat in his apartment during winter. "I just wear warm clothes and everything's alright," he says. Ummm ... OK.

- John Stamper