Pol Watchers

WP: Lewis fighting to avoid becoming a casualty

Although Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District race is not included in the Washington Post's daily Congressional Countdown, the paper today notes that U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis is in a tough fight against Democratic challenger Mike Weaver, despite having raked in 68 percent of votes cast two years ago.

Political prognosticators often use a rule of thumb when they begin evaluating which House seats might be vulnerable in the next election: start with those districts where the winner got no better than 55 percent of the vote. Tuesday’s election shows how wrong that yardstick can be.

Our Countdown lists 35 of the most competitive House districts in the country, but the reality is there are many more districts where the incumbent is in serious-to-some jeopardy. Many of them got far better than 55 percent in 2002 but that’s hardly made them immune from a sour national climate.

Take Republican Rep. Ron Lewis in Kentucky’s 2nd District, who got 68 percent two years ago. Or Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth in Arizona’s 5th District, who got 60 percent and who just saw his opponent, Harry Mitchell, win the endorsement of the Arizona Republic newspaper. Both are fighting to avoid becoming casualties on Tuesday.

There are almost about two dozen House Republicans who won more than 55 percent in 2002 who are in some trouble with just four days left in the 2006 campaign.

Of the 35 House races Post writers Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza are rating, they list 1 leaning GOP, 21 toss-ups and 13 leaning Dem. Kentucky's 3rd District race between Republican Anne Northup and Democratic challenger John Yarmuth and 4th District race between Republican incumbent Geoff Davis and former Democratic congressman Ken Lucas are listed as toss-ups.

- John Stamper

McConnell to stump for Lewis on Monday

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell will spend the day before Election Day on a bus tour with U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis in the 2nd District. Lewis and McConnell will swing through Shepherdsville, Shelbyville, Owensboro, Brownsville, Glasgow, Bowling Green and Leitchfield, according to the  Lewis campaign. 

McConnell made a similar effort on behalf of U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning in the last week of the 2004 race when Democratic state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo had closed the gap after Bunning made some mistakes. McConnell's presence and guidance in the closing days was one of the key factors that helped Bunning squeak out a 50.7% to 49.3% win.

It strikes me as interesting that McConnell will spend the key last day before the election with Lewis if Lewis' poll numbers are what the campaign says they are -- and especially with fellow Republican Rep. Anne Northup in the fight for her political life just up the road.

- Ryan Alessi

UPDATE 4:15 p.m.: Billy Piper, McConnell's chief of staff, says there is nothing out of the ordinary about McConnell's decision to spend Monday with Lewis. "We feel confident about the direction the race is headed," he said.

Piper said McConnell's first foray into helping Republicans get elected to federal office in Kentucky was with Lewis in 1994. "That's kind of a personal one to him," Piper said. "He's had a special interest in that district since 1994."

Piper said McConnell spent the first half of last month campaigning nationally and has focused in recent weeks on Kentucky's congressional and statehouse races. "He's happy to help out when asked," Piper said. He noted that McConnell will appear with U.S. Rep Geoff Davis tonight in Northern Kentucky. Davis is facing a tough challenge from former Democratic congressman Ken Lucas.

McConnell hasn't campaigned recently with Northup because "she runs a great race and she doesn't need anybody's help," Piper said. "She could be giving lessons on how to run a great campaign."

- John Stamper

Sabato's crystal ball picks Northup, Lucas and Lewis

University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato released his latest "Crystal Ball" picks, which predict Democrats to pick up 6 U.S. Senate seats -- enough to take control of the chamber -- and 27 U.S. House seats to take firm hold there.

In Kentucky's three competitive races, Sabato's crystal ball has settled on one upset: Democrat Ken Lucas to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis in Northern Kentucky's 4th District.

Sabato considers both the 4th District and 3rd District race in Louisville (between Republican U.S. Rep. Anne Northup and Democrat John Yarmuth) to be "toss ups." But he says he believes Northup will survive Election Day for a sixth term.

The third competitive race in the state, the 2nd Congressional District in west-central Kentucky, is in Sabato's "leans Republican" column. He predicts Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis will hold on against Democrat Mike Weaver. Here's what Sabato says about the 2nd and 3rd:

We've had a hard time deciding between this urban race and the rural race in the 2nd District as to which seat Bluegrass State Democrats have a more legitimate shot at capturing, but lately, the Crystal Ball has been slightly more inclined to pick this Kerry- carried district. Still, Northup has maintained good relations with several Democratic officials in the district, and retains a clear edge despite the fact that scandal-tarred GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher's approval ratings here are nothing short of disastrous.

Overall, Sabato starts his analysis with a question: When was the last time a major U.S. political party failed to pick up a single governorship, U.S. House or Senate seat in a federal election? He says he bet its never happened, but looks like the Republicans could accomplish that on Tuesday.

He says Democrats should pick up U.S. Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Montana, which means that control of the upper chamber depends on the "Threshold Three." They would be Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee (Hmm, Kentucky gets a front-row seat to these battles in their three neighbor states). "To get the magic 6 they need for control, Democrats need 2 of those 3. Gravy would be all 3, giving them a 52 seat majority," he writes.

He goes on to say that the Crystal Ball's "best bets" in the Threshold Three are that:

• Democrat Claire McCaskill beats Republican Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri
• Democrat Jim Webb defeats Sen. George Allen in Virginia
• Republican Bob Corker turns away Democrat Harold Ford for the open Tennessee seat.

Should Sabato be correct, that would deny Kentucky's U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell a chance to be Senate majority leader.

- Ryan Alessi

Students pick incumbents -- bellwether, perhaps?

Nearly 28,000 students from more than 100 Kentucky middle and high schools voted in the National Student Parent Mock Election, which was coordinated by Secretary of State Trey Grayson's office. And the students voted to send all six incumbent members of Congress back to Washington. Check out the results, which are also posted on the Secretary's site:

• In Western Kentucky's 1st District: Ed Whitfield (R) 58.8% to Tom Barlow (D) 41.2%
• In west-central Kentukcy's 2nd District: Ron Lewis (R) 60.0% to Mike Weaver (D) 40.0%
• In Northern Kentucky's 4th District: Geoff Davis (R) 49.5% to Ken Lucas (D) 37.7% to Brian Houillion (Libertarian) 12.8% (Remember, the Herald-Leader's John Stamper wrote that Houillion could play the role of spoiler for Lucas in this race)
• In Eastern Kentucky's 5th District: Hal Rogers (R) 65.9% to Kenneth Stepp (D) 34.1%
• In Central Kentucky's 6th District: Ben Chandler (D) 77.6% to Paul Ard (Libertarian) 22.4%
• Now, check out the 3rd District in Louisville, one in which the polls have showed to be very close: Anne Northup (R) edged John Yarmuth (D) by the slimmest of margins, 46.4% to 46.2% with Libertarian Donna Mancini picking up 4.4% and W. Ed Parker, of the Constitution Party, getting 3.0%

The numbers aren't exactly a scientific poll. But Les Fugate, Trey Grayson's spokesman, tells me that the students have correctly picked every winner in recent elections, however some of the percentages have been far off the actual results. For instance, the week before the 2004 election, students chose Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning over Democratic State Sen. Daniel Mongiardo with 60.8% to 39.2%. Bunning narrowly won 50.7% to 49.3% in the actual election. But the students did come very close to the results in the presidential race and the ballot question of banning gay marriage in Kentucky that year.

Fugate also said this is the first time the mock election has tested Kentucky's U.S. House races.

- Ryan Alessi

Survey USA shows Yarmuth up 8; pundit skeptical

Survey USA and WHAS-TV have a new poll that shows Democratic challenger John Yarmuth ahead of Republican incumbent Anne Northup by 8 percent in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District. Here's their breakdown of the numbers.

Democrat Challenger Yarmuth Ousts Northup In KY3: In an election in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 11/2/06, Democratic challenger John Yarmuth defeats Republican incumbent Anne Northup, 52% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. Since an identical SurveyUSA WHAS-TV poll 2 weeks ago, on 10/19/06, Yarmuth has gained 4 points and Northup has lost 3 points. In the last 5 weeks, Yarmuth has gained 8 and Northup has lost 6. On 9/29/06, Northup led by 6. Two weeks ago, Yarmuth led by 1. Today, Yarmuth leads by 8. Republicans favor Northup 9:1, and Independents are evenly split. There has been no movement in these groups in the past 2 weeks. However, Democrats, who had previously supported Yarmuth by 52 points, now support him by 64 points. Only 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for Northup, no longer enough for her to win in this heavily Democratic district. ...

I just talked with Nathan Gonzales, political editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, who described the Survey USA results as "an aberration." Gonzales said the public and private polling he has seen on the race suggests the two are in a virtual tie. "It's going to be very close," he said. "Northup is probably up narrowly."

In Rothenberg's latest ratings, released this afternoon, KY 3 is listed as "Toss-up/Tilt Republican." They list KY 4 in the same category. KY 2 is still ranked "Republican Favored." Despite those ratings, Rothenberg is predicting that Democrats will pick up 34 to 40 seats in the House.

- John Stamper

 

Lewis tries to tie Weaver to Kerry

WEAVER TRIES TO LINK LEWIS WITH RUMSFELD

UPDATE 2:15 p.m.: NOW WEAVER TRIES TO LINK LEWIS TO BOEHNER
Democratic Congressional candidate Mike Weaver fired off a statement this afternoon criticizing U.S. House Majority Leader John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, for his comments on CNN that take up for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld but appear to be a dig on the generals leading the U.S. forces in Iraq. "Let's not blame what's happening in Iraq on Rumsfeld.  But the fact is, the generals on the ground are in charge, and he works closely with them and the president," said Boehner, who campaigned for 2nd District Congressman Ron Lewis earlier this fall. "As a retired military officer, it angers me to no end that the Republican leadership Ron Lewis voted to put in place would blame our troops and military officers for what is happening in Iraq," Weaver's state ment said.

This race is getting nasty and nationalized. 

Here are some highlights from Ryan Alessi's story today about the parade of political stars campaigning for Republican incumbent Ron Lewis and Democratic challenger Mike Weaver in KY 2. You can find polling data that both campaigns released to the Herald-Leader yesterday here.

First, Lewis and First Lady Laura Bush didn't waste a moment yesterday trying to link Weaver with the controversial statements of former Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry. Weaver responded by trying to tie Lewis to embattled Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld.

At yesterday's rally just outside the Fort Knox Army base, Lewis energized Republicans by capitalizing on the recent rhetorical blunder of Massachusetts senator and former presidential candidate John Kerry. Kerry told California students Monday that if "you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq."

"I don't know how they do military training in Massachusetts, but we have the best and brightest here at Fort Knox," Lewis said, sparking loud cheers from the 350 people huddled beneath the tent on a tennis court at Radcliff's community center.

Weaver later said in an interview that Kerry's words are meaningless in this race.

"John Kerry misspoke as far as I'm concerned. And he certainly doesn't speak for me," Weaver said. He then pointed out how President Bush continues to say the military is making great progress in Iraq.

"He's saying that at a time when 109 troops have been killed that we know of in October," he said. "Ron Lewis needs to look very closely at staying the course and how he has aligned himself with President Bush and Donald Rumsfeld," the Secretary of Defense.

Here's how the two sides explain why so many national political figures have been drawn to the west-central Kentucky district.

The ever-growing list of dignitaries who have come in for both Weaver and Lewis is impressive. Weaver has drawn U.S. Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, former presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark and former U.S. Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia.

Vice President Dick Cheney, House Majority Leader John Boehner of Ohio and Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell all have stumped for Lewis.

Weaver said he considered Bush's appearance a telling signal that the Republicans are worried.

When asked whether her visit was a sign of concern, Lewis responded, "Absolutely not. This is the icing on the cake."

Which argument do you buy?

- John Stamper

Polling for Weaver and Lewis show opposite trends

BREAKING NEWS ... UPDATED ...

Polling commissioned through the Kentucky Democratic Party and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee now shows Democratic state Rep. Mike Weaver, a retired Army Colonel, leading Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis by three points in the 2nd congressional district. That poll shows that 46 percent of likely voters say they plan to vote for Weaver, compared to 43 percent for Lewis.

UPDATE 5:48 p.m.: Republican tracking numbers, however, show Lewis is opening up a substantial lead on Weaver, according to a memo by Washington-based firm Voter Consumer Research. That polling memo shows that between Oct. 29 and 31, Lewis had a 14 point lead over Weaver after a survey of 450 likely voters. Lewis led 55 percent to Weaver's 35 percent in a tracking poll of 150 voters Tuesday night. The margin of error is 4.6 percent.

In the Democrats' poll, Weaver's  slim 3-point lead is within the 4.9 percent margin of error of the poll, which was conducted between Oct. 26 and 29 by Lauer Research Inc. Those results represent the first time Weaver has been ahead in a poll during the race, which has become increasingly contentious even though the 2nd district remains the most supportive area of Republicans in the state. Voters there backed Bush in 2004 with more than 65 percent of the vote, the largest margin for any of Kentucky's congressional districts.

The Lauer memo says of the voters polled, 56% were registered Democrats  and 41% were Republicans. The memo said likely voters seem to be breaking toward Weaver in the final days. "Incumbent Ron Lewis, on the other hand, is receiving a very weak score for his performance as Congressman. In all only 41% say he's doing an excellent job, while 50% rate his performance negatively (either 'only fair' or 'poor')," the memo says.

In comparison, the Lewis tracking poll memo says he has "a 53% favorable and 31% unfavorable rating from voters in the 2nd District with only 15% without an impression of him." Weaver, meanwhile, shows a 37% favorable and 25% unfavorable rating with 37% having no opinion, the memo adds.

Lewis said after an event in Radcliff with first lady Laura Bush that he feels confident about his race and the Republicans' chances overall of keeping control of the U.S. House in next week's election.

"I think things are really starting to move very strongly in our direction," he said. 

See tomorrow's Herald-Leader for a detailed look at both Weaver and Lewis' campaigns from the trail.

- Ryan Alessi

Laura Bush stumps for Lewis

By Ryan Alessi
FRANKFORT BUREAU

RADCLIFF - In a rare Kentucky campaign appearance, first lady Laura Bush urged voters to actively support U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis in his increasingly contentious re-election bid.

Democratic candidate Mike Weaver, a state representative and retired Army colonel, has said he has closed the gap on Lewis, the seven-term incumbent. Weaver called Bush's visit a sign that Lewis is "absolutely concerned."

Both candidates have been campaigning with the stars in the final week.

The first lady's appearance for Lewis came after Weaver began a bus tour Tuesday in Shelbyville featuring U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, Kentucky's lone Democrat in Congress, and U.S. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md.

In her 16-minute remarks, Bush told 350 attendees that Lewis has supported the president in some of his key initiatives, including his tax cuts and legislation for farmers and the war on Iraq.

"In Washington, he's distinguished himself as a passionate advocate for the 2nd District," she said. "Ron Lewis has been a champion of Kentucky's rural communities."

COMPLETE STORY

Chandler more likely to run for governor?

DISPATCH FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL ...

SHELBYVILLE -- Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler said he's still leaning toward staying in congress should the Democrats take control of the U.S. House next week. But he said some days, he's more intrigued about running for governor no matter what.

He's had a couple of those days recently. One of which was in Owensboro Saturday when he attended a rally for state legislative candidate Jim Glenn -- who is challenging Republican Rep. Joe Bowen -- and then at a fund-raiser reception for Chandler's campaign at the home of Democratic state Rep. Tommy Thompson of Owensboro. Chandler said he was energized by the reception he received from Owensboro-area Democrats.

"That got me juiced up. That got me a little more excited," Chandler told me this afternoon after a campaign event with Mike Weaver, who is running for congress. "So many people were anxious for me to run. It makes me want to look at it."

By the way, one might wonder why Chandler is raising money for his campaign in a year when his only challenger, Libertarian Party candidate Paul Ard, has mounted a limited campaign. Well, being in Congress is expensive, Chandler noted.

He has raised more than $360,000 this year that has gone to help the national Democratic congressional candidates. About $120,000 of that went directly to candidates, Chandler said and the rest went to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's coffers. That money is kind of like dues, Chandler explained, so the more money a member of Congress raises, the more likely he or she is to getting a prime committee assignment. Chandler has made no secret that he is eying a spot on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, which doles out federal dollars.

As for the governor's race, Chandler said he will make a decision about that sometime between Nov. 8 and Thanksgiving. Stay tuned ...

- Ryan Alessi

Weaver says poll shows him tied with Lewis

DISPATCH FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL ...

SHELBYVILLE -- Retired Col. Mike Weaver, the Democratic state representative running for Congress, told supporters at a rally this afternoon that poll numbers he received Monday night show him "dead even" with Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis.

"When we first kicked off, we were 27 points down, then it moved to 14. Then it moved to eight. As of last night, it is even," he told the crowd of more than 50 people at the Shelby County Community Theater at the start of Weaver's final-week bus tour through the 2nd Congressional District. That race has become increasingly contentious in recent weeks.

Mike Dodge, spokesman for Lewis' campaign, said Weaver's numbers don't match Lewis' internal polling, although he wouldn't release specific numbers. Dodge said the campaign tracking numbers show Lewis ahead "beyond the margin of error."

Weaver got a campaign boost today from Kentucky's lone Democrat in the congressional delegation, U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, and U.S. Rep. Steny Hoyer, the Democratic minority whip from Maryland. Both Chandler and Hoyer said Weaver's military background and principles will help make him a key member of Congress who will help the Democrats regain the majority so the party "has a voice" again.

"We need your help. But more importantly, your country needs your help," Hoyer told the group. "Please, I beg you, on behalf of the 700,000 people I represent, send Mike Weaver to Congress next Tuesday."

Weaver also turns 68 today. The crowd, including Chandler and Hoyer, sang him "Happy Birthday," before their remarks, which prompted Weaver to admit it was his first time being serenaded by congressmen.

Lewis, meanwhile, was campaigning up Main Street in Shelbyville during lunch. He is gearing up for a major rally Wednesday in Radcliff -- Weaver's hometown -- featuring first lady Laura Bush.

For complete coverage of both candidates on the campaign trail, check out the Herald-Leader's story in Thursday's paper. 

- Ryan Alessi