Pol Watchers

Haire on the air in KY-2

The race for the Democratic nomination in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District hit TV on Friday, when Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire launched his first ad.

He faces state Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro in the May 20 primary. The winner will face Republican Brett Guthrie of Bowling Green in the general election.

In campaign finance filings last month, Haire had raised just over $200,000, compared to $34,000 for Boswell.

Here's the ad, which focuses on Haire's accomplishments.

- John Stamper

(Hat Tip: PolitickerKY.com)

Campaign fund-raising roundup

Congressional and U.S. Senate candidates must turn in their fund-raising figures through March 31 to the Federal Election Commission by April 15. Here's a look at what some of the prominent candidates are expected to file:

U.S. Senate 

This is the marquee Kentucky race for the fall. U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell is up for re-election and faces token opposition in the GOP primary from a challenger running a limited campaign with a Tennessee P.O. box. Meanwhile, seven Democrats -- including two millionaire candidates -- are duking it out for that party's nomination.

• UPDATE 12:17 a.m. Tuesday: McConnell's campaign announced it would report raising a total of $12.2 million through March 31, which the campaign says is "a new record for Kentucky." McConnell's re-election fund will have more than $7.7 million in the bank, the news release adds.
  
• Democrat Bruce Lunsford says his report will show that he's raised $280,000 and put in $470,000 of his own money before March 31. (He later said he added $545,000 more from his personal fortune that won't show upon the April 15 report)
• Democrat Greg Fischer says he's raised more than $500,000 and kicked in another $500,000 of his own.

2nd Congressional District

This will the be the race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis, a Republican from Hardin County. Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie of Bowling Green is running unopposed in the GOP primary but is amassing a warchest for the fall when he will face the winner of a clash between two Owensboro Democrats.

• Guthrie is expected to reveal raising more than $400,000 after a busy fund-raising period highlighted by a $76,000 event in Washington and a Lexington luncheon featuring Vice President Dick Cheney that brought in six figures.
• Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire, a Democrat, has told Owen Covington of the Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer that he will have raised about $200,000.
• State Sen. David Boswell, an Owensboro Democrat, told a crowd at a rally last week that "he had brought in $38,000 through Wednesday, and was hoping to generate $5,000 or $6,000 in contributions Thursday night," Covington reported.

3rd Congressional District

Democratic U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth of Louisville will face the winner of a four-candidate GOP primary for his bid for a second term.  But the favorite to emerge with the Republican nomination is Anne Northup, who represented that district from 1996 through 2006. A Yarmuth-Northup rematch would be a nationally-watched race.

• Yarmuth has amassed more than $1 million, WHAS-TV's Mark Hebert reports.
• Northup, meanwhile,  could show raising as much as $450,000 since entering the race in January, reports Jefferson Poole of Blue Grass, Red State.

- Ryan Alessi

Last-minute moves enliven races for Congress

FRANKFORT — The question “What just happened?” echoed outside the secretary of state’s office Tuesday for several minutes after the 4 p.m. candidate filing deadline passed.

Reporters, a gaggle of mostly Republican lawmakers and various political observers and aides who had gathered in the west wing of the Capitol frantically tried to make sense of how U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis, R-Cecilia, had suddenly withdrawn his candidacy for an eighth term and, in the process, revealed his intention to install his chief of staff as the presumptive Republican nominee to replace him.

But Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie of Bowling Green had been tipped off. Guthrie turned in his papers for the 2nd Congressional District when he realized what was going down as the clock ticked toward 4 p.m. The 2nd District double switch capped an especially furious few hours of political shuffling that bulldozed Kentucky’s 2008 election landscape.

Just on Tuesday afternoon, three Democratic U.S. Senate candidates filed to run, two Kentucky congressional races, including the newly open 2nd District, sprang up on national “watch lists” and more than 30 state legislative candidates emerged to fill out the roster of exciting, competitive races for both the May 20 primaries and the November general election.

“This is going to be a fun year in Kentucky politics,” Secretary of State Trey Grayson said in one of Tuesday’s biggest understatements.

Rothenberg: Kentucky House seats safe for now

If the Rothenberg Political Report is right, Kentucky's 2008 U.S. House races will be a bore.

The political newsletter says all but one of Kentucky's six House seats pose "limited risk" for the incumbent party.

The only exception is in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District, where first-term Democrat Rep. John Yarmuth faces a challenge by Republican Erwin Roberts, a former aide to Gov. Ernie Fletcher. The Louisville race is in Rothenberg's "Democrat Favored" category.

- John Stamper

Boswell will challenge Lewis in congressional race

By Ryan Alessi
RALESSI@HERALD-LEADER.COM

FRANKFORT -- Fresh off Tuesday's election wins, Democrats turned their focus to 2008 campaigns, with the new governor pledging to take a hands-on role, an expected change in the Democratic Party chairmanship, and a congressional candidate stepping forward.

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference "in the very, very near future" to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.

"I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District," Boswell said yesterday. "I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard."

Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

"It's very, very important to have a governor at the top of the party," he said. "The governor certainly can and should play a pivotal role in helping to be the main bond, if you will, that keeps all the players together and helps to build the party and make it stronger."

Beshear pledged to do just that yesterday, in his first press conference as governor-elect at the Capital Plaza Hotel.

He said he expects to help recruit legislative candidates and help them raise money.

"We will continue to do that kind of building of the party as we go along," Beshear said.

One of his first tasks as the titular head of the state Democratic Party will be to name a new chairman.

Jonathan Miller, the outgoing state treasurer who has served as Democratic Party chairman since June, has said that he would leave after Tuesday's election. Miller said last month he planned to talk with Beshear about potentially taking a job in the administration.

Several top Democrats said they expect Miller's successor to be Jennifer Moore, a Louisville lawyer and the party's vice chairman during the fall general election.

"She would be my choice," said House Speaker Jody Richards, D-Bowling Green. "I think Jennifer Moore is bright. She is progressive. She would just do a marvelous job."

Jim Cauley, Beshear's campaign manager, said he wasn't interested in moving to party headquarters, as some political strategists fresh off a governor's race win have done in the past. He, too, pointed to Moore.

"If Jonathan left, I think Jennifer would be a great choice," Cauley said.

Moore said last night she hadn't been offered the post.

"If that offer is made, I will of course do whatever to move the Democratic Party forward," she said.

McConnell has more in the bank than NRSC

The seven members of Kentucky's congressional delegation who are up for re-election next year hauled in more than $2 million over the last three months, according to reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission.

The most prolific fund-raiser in the bunch was U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader. He took in $1.25 million between April 1 and June 30 and has $5.7 million in the bank heading into next year's election.

To put that in perspective, McConnell has more cash on hand than the National Republican Senatorial Committee -- the organization aimed at helping all Republican Senate candidates. That group shows less than $4.3 million in its account.

As for the others, Republican Rep. Geoff Davis of Northern Kentucky, has raised $656,788 since April 1 and has $424,560 on hand.

Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth of Louisville kept a similar pace with $603,189 raised in three months and $455,979 in the bank.

Yarmuth, so far, is the only incumbent to draw a challenger. Erwin Roberts, a Republican and former state personnel cabinet secretary, raised more than $43,000 in his first month as a candidate.

Among the prominent donors to Roberts' campaign were Lt. Gov. Steve Pence, former Commerce Cabinet Secretary Jim Host and former GOP state Rep. Gerry Lynn of Brandenburg.

Here's how the rest of Kentucky representatives stack up:

• Fourteen-term U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers, a Republican who represents Eastern and Southern Kentucky, has more than $1 million in the bank.

• Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler of Versailles has more than $830,000 on hand.

• Republican U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield of Hopkinsville is close behind with $825,000.

• Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia, who survived his first serious challenge in a decade last year, has just shy of $250,000.

- Ryan Alessi

Analysis of KY Congressional races

By John Stamper
Herald-Leader Frankfort Bureau

In a powerful rebuke of President George W. Bush and his Iraq war policies, voters in Louisville turned out Republican U.S. Rep. Anne Northup in favor of Democrat John Yarmuth, founder of an alternative weekly newspaper.

Analysts said last night that Northup, who has represented Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District for a decade, couldn’t successfully distance herself from the Bush administration.

“There is a very unpopular war going on, and it is the elephant in the room,” said Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe. “She supported Bush and his position on the war and Yarmuth didn’t. It’s that simple.”

Republican incumbents in Kentucky’s two other competitive congressional races, the 4th District in Northern Kentucky and the 2nd District in west-central Kentucky, retained their seats.

U.S Rep. Geoff Davis, R-Hebron, bested Democratic challenger and former congressman Ken Lucas in the 4th District, which stretches along the Ohio River from the Louisville suburbs to the West Virginia border and as far south as northern Scott County.

“The Democrats missed an opportunity,” Briscoe said. “Lucas did not run a good campaign. He was woefully underfunded.”

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis won comfortably over Democratic challenger Mike Weaver, a retired Army colonel, in the 2nd District, which stretches from Owensboro east to Shelbyville and south to Bowling Green.

As the state’s most conservative district — more than 65 percent of voters supported Bush in 2004 — it was somewhat surprising to analysts that Weaver was able to mount a reasonably competitive challenge.

“The interesting thing to watch is whether there is any long-term damage done to Lewis or if this was just a national tide,” said Scott Lasley, assistant professor of political science at Western Kentucky University.

In Louisville, Northup tried to distance herself from the Bush administration by calling for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and snubbing the president when he made a campaign stop in an Indiana town 10 miles north of Louisville. In past elections, she invited Bush to stump for her in the district.

“She sort of had to switch gears in this election and try to separate herself from Bush,” said Donald Gross, a University of Kentucky political science professor.

While Northup ran from Bush, Yarmuth called for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq and embraced former President Bill Clinton, who headlined an Oct. 24 fund raiser for the Kentucky Democratic Party in Louisville.

Yarmuth becomes the state’s second Democratic congressman, joining U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Versailles, who represents the 6th District that includes Lexington.

“I can’t tell you how excited I am to have some company,” said Chandler, who is a possible contender for governor next year. “That’s a plus for me and it’s a plus for me staying in Washington, but I want to wait and see what happens through the rest of the night.”

Even before her defeat, Northup’s name was mentioned as a possible challenger to Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher in the May primary.

For much of the election season, Yarmuth was viewed by national Democrats as a sub-par candidate whose past statements in a litany of newspaper columns made him unelectable.

Northup, who likely outspent Yarmuth by a 2-1 margin, launched several ads that used Yarmuth’s own words against him, including statements in columns run in his Louisville Eccentric Observer about abolishing Social Security, raising payroll taxes and removing “Under God” from the Pledge of Allegiance.

When it became clear those ads wouldn’t be enough to demolish Yarmuth, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running advertisements on his behalf.

While State Republican Party Chairman Darrell Brock attributed Northup’s loss entirely to a “national tide,” some believe that Yarmuth’s victory is indicative of a Democratic rebound in the state, which has trended Republican in the past decade.

“It may be the case that the Democrats are finally beginning to adjust to the new terrain more effectively,” Gross said. “The Democrats may be finally starting to come back into the game.”

Kentucky congressional races

Yarmuth defeats Northup, wins seat in House

U.S. House - District 3 - Kentucky    470 of 489 Precincts Reporting

	Name	Party	Votes	Pct
	Yarmuth , John	Dem	117,212	50.81
	Northup , Anne (i)	GOP	110,738	48.00
	Mancini , Donna	Lib	1,995	.86
	Parker , Ed	CST	736	.32

U.S. House - District 4 - Kentucky    177 of 575 Precincts Reporting

	Name	Party	Votes	Pct
	Davis , Geoff (i)	GOP	45,189	48.90
	Lucas , Ken	Dem	42,695	46.20
	Houillion , Brian	Lib	4,530	4.90

Rothenberg's election night viewer guide heavy on KY races

The Rothenberg Political Report offers its readers an Election Night Viewer Guide today that is heavy on Kentucky races. Here's what political editor Nathan Gonzales suggests national viewers will learn from Congressional races in the Bluegrass State.

Kentucky 4 – Rep. Geoff Davis (R) is running for a second term in a heavily Republican district that voted 63% for President Bush. Combined GOP spending has overwhelmed former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) and the Democrats in the final weeks. If Davis loses, even with the nature of the district and an overwhelming financial edge, the GOP majority is in serious jeopardy.

Kentucky 3 - Rep. Anne Northup (R) is facing yet another challenge in her Louisville-based district. Northup's district is certainly more Democratic than the 4th District (John Kerry took 51%), but it looks like she'll go into Election Night with a narrow lead, but under 50%. If she loses, that means undecided voters are breaking heavily and convincingly for the Democrats and other battle-tested incumbents like Clay Shaw (Florida 22) and Heather Wilson (New Mexico 1) are in a lot of trouble.

Kentucky 2 – If state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) defeats Rep. Ron Lewis (R), Democrats are in for a huge night. The 2nd District voted overwhelmingly (65%) for President Bush in 2004 and it would bring a whole series of heavily Republican districts into play. A loss would be particularly troubling since Lewis doesn't have the burden of personal or ethical baggage, just the weight of President Bush.

Meanwhile, the National Journal suggests in new rankings released today that KY 3 is now Kentucky's most competitive race. The paper says KY 3 is the 36th most likely seat to change control, down from 34th a week ago. It ranks KY 4 at 37th, down from 30th a week ago.

- John Stamper

The Cook Political Report still lists KY 3 and KY 4 as toss-ups. It lists KY-2 as lean Republican.

Wesley Clark stumping today for Weaver, Yarmuth

Associated Press

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Former presidential candidate Wesley Clark returns to central Kentucky on Saturday to campaign for Democratic office-seekers.

Clark will make stops in Radcliff, Louisville and Shepherdsville in the afternoon and early evening.

He will appear with Mike Weaver, who is challenging 2nd District Republican Rep. Ron Lewis; John Yarmuth, who is trying to unseat 3rd District GOP Rep. Anne Northup; and several legislative and local candidates from the region.

Weaver was in Kentucky less than six weeks ago to speak at the Kentucky Democratic Party's "family day" event in Frankfort.

UPDATE: See comments section of this post for details of Clark's schedule.