The Rothenberg Political Report put out its first ratings Friday on the 2008 House races. Not surprisingly, the only Kentucky seat on its competitive list was KY-3rd, where Democrat John Yarmuth's seat is rated "lean Democratic."
- John Stamper
Less than a month after Republicans lost the 3rd Congressional District seat in Louisville held by U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, a familiar sports figure is looking at trying to win it back for the GOP.
Former University of Louisville football player Chris Thieneman, who now owns a successful development company, said he’s taking a hard look at running in 2008 for the chance to take on Democrat John Yarmuth, who narrowly defeated Northup this fall.
Thieneman, who played from 1983 to ‘84 and 1986 to ‘87, was an honorable mention Associated Press All American in his last season.
- Ryan Alessi
By John Stamper
Herald-Leader Frankfort Bureau
In a powerful rebuke of President George W. Bush and his Iraq war policies, voters in Louisville turned out Republican U.S. Rep. Anne Northup in favor of Democrat John Yarmuth, founder of an alternative weekly newspaper.
Analysts said last night that Northup, who has represented Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District for a decade, couldn’t successfully distance herself from the Bush administration.
“There is a very unpopular war going on, and it is the elephant in the room,” said Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe. “She supported Bush and his position on the war and Yarmuth didn’t. It’s that simple.”
Republican incumbents in Kentucky’s two other competitive congressional races, the 4th District in Northern Kentucky and the 2nd District in west-central Kentucky, retained their seats.
U.S Rep. Geoff Davis, R-Hebron, bested Democratic challenger and former congressman Ken Lucas in the 4th District, which stretches along the Ohio River from the Louisville suburbs to the West Virginia border and as far south as northern Scott County.
“The Democrats missed an opportunity,” Briscoe said. “Lucas did not run a good campaign. He was woefully underfunded.”
U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis won comfortably over Democratic challenger Mike Weaver, a retired Army colonel, in the 2nd District, which stretches from Owensboro east to Shelbyville and south to Bowling Green.
As the state’s most conservative district — more than 65 percent of voters supported Bush in 2004 — it was somewhat surprising to analysts that Weaver was able to mount a reasonably competitive challenge.
“The interesting thing to watch is whether there is any long-term damage done to Lewis or if this was just a national tide,” said Scott Lasley, assistant professor of political science at Western Kentucky University.
In Louisville, Northup tried to distance herself from the Bush administration by calling for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and snubbing the president when he made a campaign stop in an Indiana town 10 miles north of Louisville. In past elections, she invited Bush to stump for her in the district.
“She sort of had to switch gears in this election and try to separate herself from Bush,” said Donald Gross, a University of Kentucky political science professor.
While Northup ran from Bush, Yarmuth called for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq and embraced former President Bill Clinton, who headlined an Oct. 24 fund raiser for the Kentucky Democratic Party in Louisville.
Yarmuth becomes the state’s second Democratic congressman, joining U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Versailles, who represents the 6th District that includes Lexington.
“I can’t tell you how excited I am to have some company,” said Chandler, who is a possible contender for governor next year. “That’s a plus for me and it’s a plus for me staying in Washington, but I want to wait and see what happens through the rest of the night.”
Even before her defeat, Northup’s name was mentioned as a possible challenger to Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher in the May primary.
For much of the election season, Yarmuth was viewed by national Democrats as a sub-par candidate whose past statements in a litany of newspaper columns made him unelectable.
Northup, who likely outspent Yarmuth by a 2-1 margin, launched several ads that used Yarmuth’s own words against him, including statements in columns run in his Louisville Eccentric Observer about abolishing Social Security, raising payroll taxes and removing “Under God” from the Pledge of Allegiance.
When it became clear those ads wouldn’t be enough to demolish Yarmuth, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running advertisements on his behalf.
While State Republican Party Chairman Darrell Brock attributed Northup’s loss entirely to a “national tide,” some believe that Yarmuth’s victory is indicative of a Democratic rebound in the state, which has trended Republican in the past decade.
“It may be the case that the Democrats are finally beginning to adjust to the new terrain more effectively,” Gross said. “The Democrats may be finally starting to come back into the game.”
U.S. House - District 3 - Kentucky 470 of 489 Precincts Reporting
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Name | Party | Votes | Pct |
|
|
Yarmuth , John | Dem | 117,212 | 50.81 |
|
|
Northup , Anne (i) | GOP | 110,738 | 48.00 |
|
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Mancini , Donna | Lib | 1,995 | .86 |
|
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Parker , Ed | CST | 736 | .32 |
U.S. House - District 4 - Kentucky 177 of 575 Precincts Reporting
| Name | Party | Votes | Pct | |
| Davis , Geoff (i) | GOP | 45,189 | 48.90 | |
| Lucas , Ken | Dem | 42,695 | 46.20 | |
| Houillion , Brian | Lib | 4,530 | 4.90 |
A new Survey USA/WHAS poll shows Democratic challenger John Yarmuth with a 5 point lead on Republican incumbent Anne Northup in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District. It shows Yarmuth with 50 percent of the vote and Norhup with 45 percent. The two third-party candidates combined got 3 percent of the vote and 2 percent remain undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.
It's awfully late in the game for a news organization to be polling. Do you think there's any chance these results will affect turnout tomorrow?
- John Stamper
The Rothenberg Political Report offers its readers an Election Night Viewer Guide today that is heavy on Kentucky races. Here's what political editor Nathan Gonzales suggests national viewers will learn from Congressional races in the Bluegrass State.
Kentucky 4 – Rep. Geoff Davis (R) is running for a second term in a heavily Republican district that voted 63% for President Bush. Combined GOP spending has overwhelmed former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) and the Democrats in the final weeks. If Davis loses, even with the nature of the district and an overwhelming financial edge, the GOP majority is in serious jeopardy.
Kentucky 3 - Rep. Anne Northup (R) is facing yet another challenge in her Louisville-based district. Northup's district is certainly more Democratic than the 4th District (John Kerry took 51%), but it looks like she'll go into Election Night with a narrow lead, but under 50%. If she loses, that means undecided voters are breaking heavily and convincingly for the Democrats and other battle-tested incumbents like Clay Shaw (Florida 22) and Heather Wilson (New Mexico 1) are in a lot of trouble.
Kentucky 2 – If state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) defeats Rep. Ron Lewis (R), Democrats are in for a huge night. The 2nd District voted overwhelmingly (65%) for President Bush in 2004 and it would bring a whole series of heavily Republican districts into play. A loss would be particularly troubling since Lewis doesn't have the burden of personal or ethical baggage, just the weight of President Bush.
Meanwhile, the National Journal suggests in new rankings released today that KY 3 is now Kentucky's most competitive race. The paper says KY 3 is the 36th most likely seat to change control, down from 34th a week ago. It ranks KY 4 at 37th, down from 30th a week ago.
- John Stamper
The Cook Political Report still lists KY 3 and KY 4 as toss-ups. It lists KY-2 as lean Republican.
Staff writers Steve Lannen and Ryan Alessi have stories today looking at GOTV efforts in Kentucky's congressional races. In KY 4, where Republican incumbent Geoff Davis is in a close race with Democratic challenger Ken Lucas, the clear advantage goes to Davis, according to Michael Baranowski, an associate professor of political science at Northern Kentucky University.
"For years the Democrats depended on organized labor to do it for them, and the Republicans, starting in 2002, basically approached it like a massive marketing operation and essentially blew the Democrats out of the water," he said.
It is debatable how significant the turnout work is, Baranowski said, but it could be worth 2 to 4 percentage points in a race as close as the one between Davis and Lucas.
"In a statistical dead heat, you have to give an advantage to Davis on the Republican turnout machine alone," Baranowski said.
In KY 3, Alessi notes that Democrat John Yarmuth, who is opposing Republican incumbent Anne Northup, used the Sunday before Election Day in a rather odd way if his goal was to encourage voter turnout.
Yarmuth dropped plans yesterday to walk through Louisville's south or west end. Instead, he attended campaign-related meetings and did the MSNBC interview.
- John Stamper
Associated Press
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Former presidential candidate Wesley Clark returns to central Kentucky on Saturday to campaign for Democratic office-seekers.
Clark will make stops in Radcliff, Louisville and Shepherdsville in the afternoon and early evening.
He will appear with Mike Weaver, who is challenging 2nd District Republican Rep. Ron Lewis; John Yarmuth, who is trying to unseat 3rd District GOP Rep. Anne Northup; and several legislative and local candidates from the region.
Weaver was in Kentucky less than six weeks ago to speak at the Kentucky Democratic Party's "family day" event in Frankfort.
UPDATE: See comments section of this post for details of Clark's schedule.
Although Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District race is not included in the Washington Post's daily Congressional Countdown, the paper today notes that U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis is in a tough fight against Democratic challenger Mike Weaver, despite having raked in 68 percent of votes cast two years ago.
Political prognosticators often use a rule of thumb when they begin evaluating which House seats might be vulnerable in the next election: start with those districts where the winner got no better than 55 percent of the vote. Tuesday’s election shows how wrong that yardstick can be.
Our Countdown lists 35 of the most competitive House districts in the country, but the reality is there are many more districts where the incumbent is in serious-to-some jeopardy. Many of them got far better than 55 percent in 2002 but that’s hardly made them immune from a sour national climate.
Take Republican Rep. Ron Lewis in Kentucky’s 2nd District, who got 68 percent two years ago. Or Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth in Arizona’s 5th District, who got 60 percent and who just saw his opponent, Harry Mitchell, win the endorsement of the Arizona Republic newspaper. Both are fighting to avoid becoming casualties on Tuesday.
There are almost about two dozen House Republicans who won more than 55 percent in 2002 who are in some trouble with just four days left in the 2006 campaign.
Of the 35 House races Post writers Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza are rating, they list 1 leaning GOP, 21 toss-ups and 13 leaning Dem. Kentucky's 3rd District race between Republican Anne Northup and Democratic challenger John Yarmuth and 4th District race between Republican incumbent Geoff Davis and former Democratic congressman Ken Lucas are listed as toss-ups.
- John Stamper
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato released his latest "Crystal Ball" picks, which predict Democrats to pick up 6 U.S. Senate seats -- enough to take control of the chamber -- and 27 U.S. House seats to take firm hold there.
In Kentucky's three competitive races, Sabato's crystal ball has settled on one upset: Democrat Ken Lucas to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis in Northern Kentucky's 4th District.
Sabato considers both the 4th District and 3rd District race in Louisville (between Republican U.S. Rep. Anne Northup and Democrat John Yarmuth) to be "toss ups." But he says he believes Northup will survive Election Day for a sixth term.
The third competitive race in the state, the 2nd Congressional District in west-central Kentucky, is in Sabato's "leans Republican" column. He predicts Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis will hold on against Democrat Mike Weaver. Here's what Sabato says about the 2nd and 3rd:
We've had a hard time deciding between this urban race and the rural race in the 2nd District as to which seat Bluegrass State Democrats have a more legitimate shot at capturing, but lately, the Crystal Ball has been slightly more inclined to pick this Kerry- carried district. Still, Northup has maintained good relations with several Democratic officials in the district, and retains a clear edge despite the fact that scandal-tarred GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher's approval ratings here are nothing short of disastrous.
Overall, Sabato starts his analysis with a question: When was the last time a major U.S. political party failed to pick up a single governorship, U.S. House or Senate seat in a federal election? He says he bet its never happened, but looks like the Republicans could accomplish that on Tuesday.
He says Democrats should pick up U.S. Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Montana, which means that control of the upper chamber depends on the "Threshold Three." They would be Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee (Hmm, Kentucky gets a front-row seat to these battles in their three neighbor states). "To get the magic 6 they need for control, Democrats need 2 of those 3. Gravy would be all 3, giving them a 52 seat majority," he writes.
He goes on to say that the Crystal Ball's "best bets" in the Threshold Three are that:
Should Sabato be correct, that would deny Kentucky's U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell a chance to be Senate majority leader.
- Ryan Alessi
Ryan Alessi, political writer; Jack Brammer, state government reporter; Sarah Vos, public health reporter; John Cheves, government accountability reporter; Michelle Ku, Lexington government reporter and John Stamper, government editor.
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