Here comes the circus

By Ryan Alessi
Herald-Leader Political Writer

As implausible as it once sounded, Kentucky will likely take a turn in coming days as the center of the American political universe.

This strange and ever-murky Democratic primary contest is now winding its way to the closers: the last half-dozen of unlikely electoral battlegrounds, including the Bluegrass State.

So barring a sudden race-ending concession, both Democratic presidential contenders — U.S. Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York — are expected to criss-cross the state over the next two weeks leading up to Kentucky’s May 20 primary as if they’re running for governor instead of president.

“It’s an important role for Kentucky, but I would caution us not to get our hopes up that we’re going to be the kingmaker or the queenmaker,” said Saundra Ardrey, head of the political science department at Western Kentucky University. “The pattern is that the candidates pretty much split the delegates and no decision is made.”

Returns from Tuesday’s elections in Indiana and North Carolina appeared to match that trend as Clinton led in Indiana and Obama captured North Carolina, although Obama’s clear victory in the bigger state yielded more delegates.

That’s not to say continuing the race in states like Kentucky would be a pointless exercise, Ardrey said. In fact, the protracted primary process could have benefits for everyone: the eventual Democratic nominee, the Republicans and the voters.

Presumptive GOP nominee U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona gains if Obama and Clinton continue to trade shots.

Both Democrats, meanwhile, can generate excitement with personal appearances and mobilize grassroots support in each state as they prepare for the fall.

And voters in these final few primary sites can vet the contenders in person and hear unfiltered policy stances directly from the candidates.

These contests still might not yield a decisive nominee, leaving that to more than 4,000 delegates at August’s Democratic National Convention.

But for the next four weeks, the primaries in West Virginia, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Puerto Rico and Kentucky will serve as key testing grounds, each another last chance for Clinton and Obama.

Dynamics in Kentucky

The presidential campaign invasion of the Bluegrass State began with a trickle weeks ago as local field offices sprouted up for both Obama and Clinton, which have two dozen Kentucky campaign headquarters combined.

The campaigns will likely reach a new pitch in coming days.

“For too long we’ve let places like West Virginia and Kentucky slip out of the Democratic column,” Clinton said late Tuesday night in her speech declaring victory in Indiana. “I’m going to work my heart out in West Virginia and Kentucky this month and I intend to win there in November in the general election.”

Clinton already has committed to headline a Democratic Party fund-raiser in Louisville Friday.

Most political observers and Democratic officials say Clinton is likely to win Kentucky’s primary.

“We tend to support people that we know,” said state Rep. Greg Stumbo, D-Prestonsburg and a Clinton supporter. “We’re a very clannish state in a lot of ways.”

He pointed to Kentucky’s support for Bill Clinton in the 1992 and 1996 general elections as an example.

With Clinton leading by as much as 35 points in early Kentucky polls, even Obama supporters concede that their candidate faces “an uphill battle.”

“I think he’s the underdog. But he’s also been the underdog in a lot of places,” said former Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus, who was in Frankfort Tuesday for the opening of an Obama office. “If the past is indication, he doesn’t take any state for granted and fights hard in every one of them.”

What to look for

But in a Democratic primary season that so far has refused to produce a clear-cut winner, Kentucky’s results could yield key pieces of information — even if Clinton does win as predicted, said Ardrey, of WKU.

For instance, both candidates have opportunities to appeal to key demographic groups here, she said.

Obama has energized African American voters, whose support and turnout is essential for Democrats to win in general elections, Ardrey said. Thus, turnout figures for black voters in Louisville and Lexington will be key to watch, she said.

Meanwhile, Clinton trounced Obama among white, blue-collar men in nearby Ohio and Pennsylvania.

“So we expect Hillary Clinton to take the Appalachian areas, the rural areas of Kentucky,” Ardrey said. “What will be interesting is if either one of them can make inroads into the other’s base.”

Clinton also trails Obama in the overall Democratic delegate tally, meaning her best hope of ultimate victory is to harness a landslide of support from superdelegates — party leaders and elected officials who can vote in the Democratic National Convention for the candidate of their choice regardless of their state’s primary election results.

“What she can do is build some momentum and wins in the states that are left, and she might give the superdelegates pause or get them to even change who they’re supporting,” said Ardrey.

For those reasons, both campaigns have ramped up the hyperbole, calling Kentucky and the remaining contests crucial.

“For the first time, Kentucky votes will count,” said Jerry Lundergan, the former Kentucky Democratic Party Chairman who serves on Clinton’s national finance committee. “We can not only win Kentucky but we can win by a large majority and push Hillary Clinton over the top.”

Mabus, speaking for Obama’s campaign, offered Frankfort campaign volunteers a similar message Tuesday.

“Kentucky and Mississippi and a lot of states that have not (traditionally) been part of the nominating process, are important this year,” he said. “We’re not going to cede a vote or a place to anybody.”

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Comments

[Young Atheart]

In the 1990s, the Dems lost congress while Bill Clinton was fixing this country AND balancing the budget. A confused nation responded by letting the neo-cons take control of the Presidency as well. The neo-cons not only unraveled everything Bill Clinton accomplished, they are dismantling our constitutional liberties won with blood over generations. Since regaining control of the Congress, the Dems have done nothing except complain. Why does anyone think that Hillary can fix this by fighting and half truths.

I am a 47 year old who is voting for the first time in my life because of Obama's leadership in 12 years of elected office. He crosses bridges and gets things done.
** 800+ bills from 8 years in the Illinois senate. Barrack is the ONLY candidate to pass Healthcare reform.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/07/29/us/politics/20070730_OBAMA_GRAPHIC.html
From the US Senate --
**the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006 (became law),
**The Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act, (became law),
**The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, passed the Senate,
**The 2007 Government Ethics Bill, (became law),
**The Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill, (In committee), and many more.
** Honest Leadership and Open Govt. Act (became law)
** Sponsorship with John McCain (R-AZ) of a climate change bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by two-thirds by 2050
** joined Chuck Hagel (R-NE) in introducing legislation to reduce risks of nuclear terrorism (partial passage)
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/04/obamas-outreach.html

"Of all the leading candidates, he [Obama] is the only one on these issues who has consistently acted like a true American" says Naomi Wolf, the author of The End of America and the co-founder of the American Freedom Campaign.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/naomi-wolf/why-barack-obama-got-my-v_b_89017.html

[Clear choice]

Nice try, Young Atheart. As you properly alluded, the balancing of the budget and the prosperity of the "Clinton years" was accomplished through a REPUBLICAN CONGRESS!

And talk about embellishing Obama's record! Many of these bills that he supposedly "sponsored", he was a bit player, an opportunistic johnny-come lately. Obama and his wife are smooth-talking lawyers, like every Democrat presidential or VP candidate in the last quarter century!

Let's see how progressive Obama is when it comes to tort reform. Will he support putting an end to the outrageous lawsuits such as the one over fen-phen in which three of his fellow lawyers stole $millions$ from the victims they supposedly cared about. How do you think John Edwards made his millions? Off of the suffering of others.

The national Democrat party has become the party of lawyers. The Dem presidential candidates are all lawyers, and it is lawyers in Congress that live off of a system of bureaucracy they continue to create.

It is the Republicans and a few conservative Democrats who put forth real world candidates who share the values of the men and women across this country.

When it comes to voting for someone to protect and lead or country, to be our Commander in Chief, our choice is between an inexperienced liberal elitist lawyer and a man who nearly gave his life for his country.

[Wolf's a nut]

Naomi Wolf is a radical feminist nut. Her endorsement of Obama should scare most Americans into voting for McCain.