Poll shows Clinton ahead in Kentucky primary; McCain winning in Nov

A new Kentucky poll shows New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton with a substantial early lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in the state's May 20 Democratic presidential primary election, 56 percent to 25 percent.

The survey, conducted by Lexington-based marketing and research firm Preston-Osborne, also shows that the 600 "frequent voters" who participated in the poll solidly favored presumptive Republican nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, over either of the Democrats.

McCain, if the general election were held today, would defeat Clinton, 53 percent to 42 percent and Obama by a greater margin, 60 percent to 29 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

"Kentucky has a history of voting for a more conservative candidate in national elections," said Phil Osborne, the firm's CEO, in a statement. "The Bill Clinton years were an exception, but it appears that the conservative base has come home in at least the presidential campaign."

Osborne added in his statement that "if the numbers don't change between now and November, that could also be a big boost to Sen. McConnell, who is running for re-election."

In November, Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell will face the winner of the May 20 Democratic primary that features seven candidates.

Click here to view Preston Osborne's news release and regional breakdown of the poll.

Broken down by regions, the presidential primary results of the Preston-Osborne poll matches those of a poll from last week conducted by SurveyUSA.

Clinton leads in every region across the state with her best results in Eastern Kentucky's 5th Congressional District, where 70 percent of respondents favored her compared to 9 percent who back Obama.

Obama's best region was Louisville, where he trailed Clinton 40 percent to 45 percent. In the 6th Congressional District that covers Lexington, Clinton leads 53 percent to 25 percent, according to the results.

In the early, head-to-head matchups for the fall general election, Clinton fared better than Obama in every region against McCain except Louisville.

The results show McCain handily defeating Clinton in Western Kentucky's 1st Congressional District and Northern Kentucky, which is the 4th Congressional District. Clinton, meanwhile, polled even with McCain at 47 percent in Eastern Kentucky and slightly ahead, 49 percent to 48 percent in Louisville.

Obama would defeat McCain there 52 percent to 47 percent but lose by more than a 2-1 ratio in every other area of the state, the poll showed.

That dovetails with some of the early lines put out by all three campaigns. Republicans, such as McConnell, have predicted that McCain will carry Kentucky easily in the fall regardless of the Democratic nominee.

Clinton and her supporters in recent visits to Kentucky have expressed confidence that the Bluegrass state will back a Clinton on the ballot just as voters did in 1992 and 1996 when Bill Clinton carried the state.

And Obama's supporters have said they expected to be down by big numbers in early polls because that's been the theme throughout the race. Matthew Barzun, a key Kentucky supporter for Obama, recently told Lexington advocates not to be concerned about those polls because that will change once voters hear directly from the candidate.

- Ryan Alessi

Comments

[KYJurisDoctor]

Believe me, there is NOTHING surprising about the poll results at all!