Casino measure now short of 'ayes'

By Ryan Alessi
RALESSI@HERALD-LEADER.COM

FRANKFORT -- Even as House Speaker Jody Richards and Gov. Steve Beshear expressed optimism about rounding up the necessary 60 votes to pass a casino bill, a Herald-Leader survey of the 99 House members showed it had a long way to go.

Just 37 House members said that they plan to support the current version of the constitutional amendment that would allow casinos. Twelve others told the Herald-Leader they were undecided and five wouldn't reveal their positions.

Perhaps more concerning for advocates of the proposal, such as Richards and Beshear, is that 44 of the 99 current House members said they're likely to vote against the draft of the constitutional amendment that's pending before the lower chamber..

House Democratic Whip Rob Wilkey, who is responsible for counting votes, said his updated tally of lawmakers who could agree to vote for a casino amendment was "well above 50."

Upon seeing the Herald-Leader's vote count -- which relied upon interviews with 84 lawmakers and public statements by the other 15 -- Wilkey said those who took definitive stands are in line with his tally.

Without naming any lawmakers, Wilkey said he expects many of those who told the Herald-Leader they are undecided or were keeping their position secret could be convinced to vote for it. And he said House leaders will be trying to talk "soft 'No's" into changing their minds.

"There are some people who are saying 'No' right now who might be able to be persuaded," he said.

Still, Wilkey conceded that the next several days will be critical for Democratic leaders to lock up "five or six votes that are going to be critical" to get over the 60-vote threshold.

CONTINUE READING STORY

How representatives might vote

Comments

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

A Course in SLOTS 101:

Winning at Slots
What Are The Odds?

Law: Most players don't know, but chances of hitting a jackpot go back to a 300-year- old mathematical principle.
Medicine & Science
________________________________________
Byline: Dennis O'Brien
Source: SUN STAFF
Published on Monday, March 10, 2003
Section: TELEGRAPH Page: 6A

The Baltimore Sun

Imagine this scenario: Jack plunks down a cup of quarters in front of a Pimlico slot machine, loses 50 times in a row and quits in disgust. As he stalks away, Jane spies his machine, drops a quarter in the slot, then laughs as she wins 100 coins. Jack, of course, is convinced he cheated himself by quitting too early - and furious at the woman for taking "his" winnings.

Now Jane drops 99 of her new-found quarters into the same machine, losing every time. But as she prepares to play her 100th quarter, she is convinced her odds are better than when she started.

"That's a common fallacy, and it's completely wrong," says Michael Shackleford, a former Social Security actuary who runs a casino advice Web site called the Wizard of Odds.

According to Shackleford and other math wizards, millions of players are ignorant of the 300-year-old mathematical principle that governs slot machines.

But that very ignorance will guarantee millions for Maryland and the racing industry - if Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. succeeds with a plan to put one-armed bandits at the tracks. Discovered by Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli in 1689, the principle is known as the Law of Large Numbers, and it has two parts.

First, it says, random outcomes such as a coin flip or tug on a slot machine lever are unaffected by previous flips and tugs. Each has the same odds as the one before it and the one after. Second, the overall result of random outcomes generally becomes more predictable as the number of outcomes increase.

This is a very interesting story from the Baltimore Sun, where they have slots at racetracks.

This is rather long for a post . . . Read the lead, and if you want to read more go to;

http://wizardofodds.com/slots/balt-sun.html

Source: University of Nevada Las Vegas

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

FROM THE HERALD LEADER

How representatives might vote, or not The 99 current members of the state House are split over the current proposal to allow casinos in Kentucky, according to the Herald-Leader's vote count based on 84 interviews with lawmakers in recent days as well as previous public statements of the others.

A constitutional amendment would need 60 votes to pass out of the House. Here's where the 99 say they are on the issue now:
The 99 current members of the state House are split over the current proposal to allow casinos in Kentucky, according to the Herald-Leader's vote count based on 84 interviews with lawmakers in recent days as well as previous public statements of the others. A constitutional amendment would need 60 votes to pass out of the House. Here's where the 99 say they are on the issue now:

IF YOU KNOW ANY OF THESE PEOPLE AND FEEL YOU WANT TO EXPRESS YOUR FEELINGS GO THE LRC SIGHT THAT LIST MEMBERS PHONE NUMBERS AND EMAILS.
http://www.lrc.ky.gov/

YES (28)
Rocky Adkins, D-Sandy Hook
John Arnold, D-Sturgis
Tom Burch, D-Louisville
Mike Cherry, D-Princeton
Larry Clark, D-Louisville
Leslie Combs, D-Pikeville
Tim Firkins, D-Louisville
Derrick Graham, D-Frankfort
Charlie Hoffman, D-Georgetown
Dennis Horlander, D-Shivley
Joni Jenkins, D-Shively
Dennis Keene, D-Wilder
Jimmie Lee, D-Elizabethtown
Mary Lou Marzian, D-Louisville
Reginald Meeks, D-Louisville
Charles Miller, D-Louisville
Harry Moberly, D-Richmond
Darryl Owens, D-Louisville
Don Pasley, D-Winchester
Rick Rand, D-Bedford
Jody Richards, D-Bowling Green
Steven Riggs, D-Louisville
Carl Rollins, D-Midway
Arnold Simpson, D-Covington
Greg Stumbo, D-Prestonsburg
Tommy Thompson, D-Owensboro
David Watkins, D-Henderson
Rob Wilkey, D-Scottsville
LEANING YES (9)
Larry Belcher, D-Shepherdsville
Johnny Bell, D-Glasgow
Jim Glenn, D-Owensboro
Jim Gooch Jr., D-Providence
Sannie Overly, D-Paris
John Will Stacy, D-West Liberty
John Tilley, D-Hopkinsville
Robin Webb, D-Grayson
Ron Weston, D-Fairdale

NO (38)
Royce Adams, D-Dry Ridge
Eddie Ballard, D-Madisonville
Sheldon Baugh, R-Russellville
Kevin Bratcher, R-Louisville
Scott Brinkman, R-Louisville
Dwight Butler, R-Harned
Hubert Collins, D-Wittensville
James R. Comer, R-Tompkinsville
Tim Couch, R-Hyden
Ron Crimm, R-Louisville
Robert R. Damron, D-Nicholasville
James DeCesare, R-Rockfield
Mike Denham, D-Maysville
Myron Dossett, R-Pembroke
Teddy Edmonds, D-Jackson
C.B. Embry Jr., R-Morgantown
Joe Fischer, R-Fort Thomas
Danny Ford, R-Mount Vernon
W. Keith Hall, D-Phelps
Mike Harmon, R-Junction City
Melvin Henley, D-Murray
Jimmy Higdon, R-Lebanon
Jeffrey Hoover, R-Jamestown
Tom Kerr, R-Taylor Mill
Stan Lee, R-Lexington
Russ Mobley, R-Campbellsville
Brad Montell, R-Shelbyville
Tim Moore, R-Elizabethtown
Rick Nelson, D-Middlesboro
Fred Nesler, D-Mayfield
Marie Rader, R-McKee
Tom Riner, D-Louisville
Stephen Rudy, R-West Paducah
Sal Santoro, R-Florence
Charles L. Siler, R-Williamsburg
Jim Stewart, R-Flat Lick
Tommy Turner, R-Somerset
Ken Upchurch, R-Monticello
LEANING NO (6)
Will Coursey, D-Benton
Bob DeWeese, R-Louisville
Richard Henderson, D-Jeffersonville
Frank Rasche, D-Paducah
Ancel Smith, D-Leburn
Brent Yonts, D-Greenville
UNDECIDED (12)
Milward Dedman Jr., D-Harrodsburg
Bill Farmer, R-Lexington
David Floyd, R-Bardstown
Jeff Greer, D-Brandenburg
Adam Koenig, R-Erlanger
Thomas M. McKee, D-Cynthiana
David Osborne, R-Prospect
Ruth Ann Palumbo, D-Lexington
Dottie Sims, D-Horse Cave
Kathy Stein, D-Lexington
Alecia Webb-Edgington, R-Fort Wright
Susan Westrom, D-Lexington
WON'T SAY (5)
Jesse Crenshaw, D-Lexington
Lonnie Napier, R-Lancaster
Tanya Pullin, D-South Shore
John Vincent, R-Ashland
Addia Wuchner, R-Burlington
WILL ABSTAIN
Jim Wayne, D-Louisville, whose company has a contract with Churchill Downs

AND
YOU MIGHT WANT TO KEEP THIS LIST FOR THE NEXT ELECTION.

JAS IN FRANKFORT,KY.

[DW]

I posted this comment in the David Williams entry, but maybe it belongs here:

I just read on http://www.thoroughbredblog.com/ that Williams is a regular at nearby casinos, is that really true?

This is a racing blogger that seems to have his facts straight and doesn't strike me as a fire-breathing anti-Republican...

[Bill]

Hey JAS -- Maryland doesn't have slots...yet. In fact the story you cite above is from 2003 when the (now former) governor couldn't get the slots issue through the legislature.

Maryland is trying to get the queston on the ballot this year too, like ky.

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

Bill:

Thanks, my bad.

jas in frankfort

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

Bill:

Thanks, my bad. I was trying to make a point of how fast SLOTS eat up money. I guess I did not make that clear. Thanks for correcting me, don't want to post anything that is not substantiated. I thought that statement was, but I was wrong.

jas in frankfort

[Bill]

No problem JAS -- no harm no foul, it's an easy mistake to make.

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

Those that FAVOR impacting our Commonwealth with the NUMBER ONE MENTAL HEALTH PROBLEM IN THE UNITED STATES ARE LISTED.

So you will be able to remember, at election time, print the post above that lays out the votes regarding the amendment to vote for Casinos.

Then, put it somewhere until you need for the next General Assembly election. They can run around this issue, but when the final vote is tallied it will not show...WE WANT TO VOTE..

The paper will show a simple up or down and members of the Assembly will have to stand on that indelible vote.

If by the Governors and Speaker Richards freidnely (?) persuasion, it does make the ballot, the momentum is there to defeat it at the ballot box.

But, will those that oppose the issue be on a LEVEL PLAYING field with it comes time to spend money to explain their position?

Looks like Governor Beshear and his pals need to start to work , fast, on PLAN B.

Jim Anderson Stivers
Frankfort, KY.

[In the Know]

Good try DW, but it doesn't wash with the facts. The poster is relying simply on hearsay to try to convince readers that there are two David Williams, one a gambler and one not. I am suprised that the poster actually noted that there is a professional poker player named David Williams that is no relation to the state senator.

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

In the know . . .

Good point!

Way to go..........

If we vote, lets adequately inform first.

jas in Frankfort

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

For this blogger nothing rings louder and with greater impact than a person than has been thru this CASINO GAMBLING ISSUE.

Here is what a former Kentucky resident, now living in Louisiana has to say about the Casinos where she lives.

And, it parallels everything we have been discussing here:

Notice this YOUNG is spelled DIFFERENT than the YUNG, YUNG WE HAVE NOT MET, BUT WE DO KNOW SOMETHING OF HOW HE RUNS HIS BUSINESS EMPIRE.

FROM POL WATCHERS:

I live in Shreveport, Louisiana and we are consumed by 5 casinos. It is terrible!!!

There are so many divorces, couples in financial difficulties because one or both are gamblers and they did not start out being gamblers.

People don't show up for work, drink too much, have domestic trouble, etc. all because of gambling.

I urge Kentuckians to vote NO and contact their legislators to vote against this issue. IT DOES NOT HELP EDUCATION!! Just look at where Louisiana is ranked in education and especially Shreveport.

As a fellow Kentuckian I urge you to not accept all of the so called things casinos can do for you.

The price is way too high.

Posted by: Charlotte Young | March 05, 2008 at 03:10 PM

I just wanna help say!

Jim Anderson Stivers

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

Charlotte Young,
Shreveport, LA.

HELLO AND WELCOME TO THE DISCUSSION.

Ms. Young, I am a blogger in Kentucky that has been trying to point out some of the dangers of addicting our citizens to Casinos. Your comments ring true with all the research and other findings in this matter that have been posted. But yours is a REAL TIME EXPERIENCE.

Please, since you live ON THE FRONT LINE
BLOG WITH US . . . PLEASE on POL WATCHERS

Relate for us, other experiences you know about, due to CASINOS COMING TO Louisiana.

Some here claim it brings a lot of jobs and a lot of money to our state for taxes.

However, what you report about education rings true to what we already see here in Kentucky and that is, how far behind we are in student academics.

Please . . . share you knowledge with us.

Thank you,
Jim Anderson Stivers
Frankfort, KY.

[DW]

"The poster is relying simply on hearsay to try to convince readers that there are two David Williams, one a gambler and one not. I am suprised that the poster actually noted that there is a professional poker player named David Williams that is no relation to the state senator."

I don't understand your point -- I think the blogger was just pointing out that Williams is willing to drive out of the state to gamble but he won't agree that they are right for Kentucky. Why is it that what is good for the goose is good for the gander?

The fact that there is a 20-something year old poker player named David Williams is a coincidence, I think that was the blogger's point.

[So What?]

If David Williams is a regular at Casinos, SO WHAT?? I have no idea if he is or not, but alot of people enjoy going to casinos occasionally, but that doesn't mean we want them HERE IN KY! Let other states have all of the social ills associated with casinos if they choose, and Kentuckians that want to enjoy casinos can go there to play. Just please don't bring them here to Ky!!

[So What?]

If David Williams is a regular at Casinos, SO WHAT?? I have no idea if he is or not, but alot of people enjoy going to casinos occasionally, but that doesn't mean we want them HERE IN KY! Let other states have all of the social ills associated with casinos if they choose, and Kentuckians that want to enjoy casinos can go there to play. Just please don't bring them here to Ky!!

[So What?]

If David Williams is a regular at Casinos, SO WHAT?? I have no idea if he is or not, but alot of people enjoy going to casinos occasionally, but that doesn't mean we want them HERE IN KY! Let other states have all of the social ills associated with casinos if they choose, and Kentuckians that want to enjoy casinos can go there to play. Just please don't bring them here to Ky!!

[It matters]

So what? I think that racing blogger nailed it on the head when he said that Williams is a "do as I say/not as I do" hypocrite.

[so what!?!]

I have no idea if David Williams enjoys going to Casinos alot or not, but SO WHAT if he does? I love to take my kids to Kings Island, but I certainly wouldn't want it to be here in Lexington! Same with Casinos!!

[Truth]

To it matters, Williams never said he thinks casinos are bad, but he HAS said casinos would be bad here in Ky!!! So he is NOT "do as I say/not do as I do" hypocrite. I think casinos are fun, and I have been to them, but I sure don't want them here where my kids and grandkids are!!

[Kelsey]

I think that it is of the highest ignorance for people on this blog to post the names of the members that are for or against a piece of Legislation. The way they are leaning is of no ones business. Governor Carroll, my close personal friend, would not want his name plastered all over this blog on the way he is leaning, which is for the casino bill, and I dont think other Senators would either. I have spoken with Senator David Williams at Churchill Downs at the Derby, had a drink with him and he is a nice business man, I could deal with him if I had to. I feel that the way that Stivers, Hack, and Forgy have acted on the Casino Bill is very unprofessional. But they are all Republicans and what do you expect from a bunch of Republican hacks.
Kelsey.

[Let Us Vote!]

Hmmm...so a frequent poster submits false information to give a negative impression of casinos - and he gets caught.

How much other false information has he posted?

Let us vote on the issue. It looks like it is picking up steam in the House.

[Recall Beshear]

LET US VOTE!! ON RECALLING STEVE BESHEAR!!!

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

In a free society the records of actions by public officials are public domain. There exist, only perceived harm, by those that can not adequately qualify their objection.

Not over yet . . . but . . . even if the issue reaches the ballot, the opposition to the gambling amendment, is very strong.

Witnessed by the several hundred, that took time from their day, to come to Frankfort and let the General Assembly know there is strong opposition to this issue.

Contact your legislator. Now you know where they stand, you can let them know where you stand, they take email also.

The directory is located on the LRC sight.

http://www.lrc.ky.gov/

I just wanna say!

Jim Anderson Stivers
Frankfort, KY.

[Ignorant is as Kelsey does]

"I think that it is of the highest ignorance for people on this blog to post the names of the members that are for or against a piece of Legislation. The way they are leaning is of no ones business. Governor Carroll, my close personal friend, would not want his name plastered all over this blog on the way he is leaning, which is for the casino bill, and I dont think other Senators would either"

Kelsey says it's ignorant to post the way legislators are leaning on the bill, then he proceeds to post how Carroll is leaning. Ergo Kelsey is ignorant.

But we already knew that.

It's EVERYONE's business how the legislators are leaning. That way we as constituents can contact them to let our feelings be known.

Is there anybody here who still believes that Kelsey is friends with Carroll or Beshear or anyone else important?

[Let Us Vote!]

Let us vote on the issue. I will personally be highly offended by my legislators if they do not give me the opportunity to vote. I don't care if they are personally opposed and they say so. Just give us a chance.

All the naysayers are afraid that the big casino money will come in and influence the voters. A lot of faith you have in the public! How come when we have a wet/dry vote, the dry votes turn out in droves? The same thing can happen here.

I don't know if I will vote for or against it, but I do want the chance to vote. From what I understand, more people want the chance to vote on it than don't want to.

I think the naysayers don't want the people to vote because they know the people want the casinos.

Sorry Stivers et al., you aren't going to threaten the legislators.

[Kelsey]

That is right, Let Us vote, Stivers should be removed from this blog for the way he has threaten Sen Carroll, my close personal friend. He is now trying to threaten the other members of the Ky House by posting there names and how he thinks they may vote or not vote. Per todays C-J, Wilkey says that he only needs 3-4 votes to send the Casino Bill to the full house for a vote, which should pass next week. They are waiting for several Republicans who are afraid of David Williams, to make up there minds about there votes first. Will be close in the Senate, but should pass with some good lobby work.
Kelsey.

[WakeUpKY]

Let Us Vote and Kelsey show their utter ignorance when they suggest that it is improper or "threatening" to post where our legislators stand on an issue! The list was published in the H-L today, and Mr. Stivers was kind enough to copy it to us. We have every right to know where they stand on this or any issue. They are just unhappy that their gambling bill is in deep trouble!

It appears that the pro-casino lobby is in disarray and fearing the inevitable. The gambling bill is toast!

LET US VOTE on recalling Beshear!

[JW]

DW, I think it was you who missed the point. The blog poster Michael said he had "heard" the David Williams frequents casinos. That makes it hearsay. If he in fact had seem Mr. Williams himself at a casino, that would make it a first person encounter. There is a difference.

Kelsey, the voting records of our elected representatives is public records and therefore, Mr. Stivers has done nothing wrong posted that information. He was even correct to post his references for his cited sources.

[Bill]

Actually JW, the blogger said he "heard" that Williams was a high roller... he says that it is known that Williams goes to Casinos. I believe that Williams has admited this in hearings or in interviews b/c this isn't the first time I've read it.

I'm pretty sure he's even gone on the record about how he likes to go to casinos but doesn't think they are good for the state in fact...

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

Lift for previous post;

That is right, Let Us vote, Stivers should be removed from this blog for the way he has threaten Sen Carroll, my close personal friend.

He is now trying to threaten the other members of the Ky House by posting there names and how he thinks they may vote or not vote. (KELSEY)

Of all the people that should be removed from this blog it is the impostor Kelsey.

I have contacted a key member of the Kelsey family in Frankfort. Only a person associated with the KDP, would have any history of how THE KELSEY FAMILY, which is well respected here in Frankfort, would have any idea of how the KELSEY FAMILY DISTRIBUTES ITS MONEY.

So that makes me wonder if it is a disgruntled Jerry Lundergan supporter. You know they guy that had to borrow a million bucks for the KDP cause his credibility would not allow people to give money to the KDP. And, that embarrassment, which was honestly noted on blogs, may be the reason this impostor is trying to play the old game...LETS PRETEND!

Since it is KELSEY that claims SENATOR JULIAN CARROLL favors gambling. I challenge you to write an email to Senator Carroll and ask him. That is if you have his personal Email adrs.

Julian Carroll does not know THE PHANTOM BLOGGER KELSEY. And, that bloggers is a fact.

As a matter of fact, previously Carroll's comments about KNOWING KELSEY, have been published on this blog. Kelsey is not telling the truth and can not prove in writing that Senator Carroll favors the Casino bill OR EVEN THAT SENATOR CARROLL KNOWS HIM.

Senator Carroll is like so many others, he does not want to reveal, contrary to KELSEY'S POST, how he is going to vote on this issue.

And, that IS A FACT.

If not, then show us an email from Julian Carroll that states he is for the CASINO ISSUE. And how the dinners were when you and your dad visited at Julian Carroll's home in Frankfort.

You can't do that, so that makes you ignorant comments, on this blog, IRRELEVANT.

"I JUST WANNA SAY!"
Jim Anderson Stivers
Frankfort, KY.

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

I don't know what if any Mr. Kelsey may have contributed to my campaign.

I have no memory that he did.

I did not say at the Red Mile I was for Casinos.

I said I would put the question on the ballot and I have told you that.

I am not a member at all of KEEP.

The Red Mile could not legally sponsor my event and did not do so. Neither did the so-called gambling establishment.

Several of the stockholders of the Red Mile contributed to my campaign. Joe Costa does not own the Red Mile, but is a stockholder.

You know I have not talked to you on the phone and the report of what I said in the State Journal is confusing. Just for the record I have not said I am for casinos and only a fool would commit to such a bill until he sees the content of the legislation.

No contributions by Mr. Kelsey or anyone else will intimidate me into voting a particular way. I would appreciate your straightening out the information on line.

Julian

NOW kelsey SHOW US YOUR EMAIL THAT SAYS SENATOR CARROLL FAVORS THE CASINO ISSUE.

[JW]

Are those crickets chirping in Kelsey's silence?

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

JW:

I am :)

jas

[JW]

The HL had a short blurb today stating that Mr. Yung's Tropicana casino has lost it's gambling license. This is the guy Beshear wants to open a casino in Kentucky.