Last-minute moves enliven races for Congress

FRANKFORT — The question “What just happened?” echoed outside the secretary of state’s office Tuesday for several minutes after the 4 p.m. candidate filing deadline passed.

Reporters, a gaggle of mostly Republican lawmakers and various political observers and aides who had gathered in the west wing of the Capitol frantically tried to make sense of how U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis, R-Cecilia, had suddenly withdrawn his candidacy for an eighth term and, in the process, revealed his intention to install his chief of staff as the presumptive Republican nominee to replace him.

But Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie of Bowling Green had been tipped off. Guthrie turned in his papers for the 2nd Congressional District when he realized what was going down as the clock ticked toward 4 p.m. The 2nd District double switch capped an especially furious few hours of political shuffling that bulldozed Kentucky’s 2008 election landscape.

Just on Tuesday afternoon, three Democratic U.S. Senate candidates filed to run, two Kentucky congressional races, including the newly open 2nd District, sprang up on national “watch lists” and more than 30 state legislative candidates emerged to fill out the roster of exciting, competitive races for both the May 20 primaries and the November general election.

“This is going to be a fun year in Kentucky politics,” Secretary of State Trey Grayson said in one of Tuesday’s biggest understatements.

The 2nd District already was shaping up to be a good fight. Democratic state Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro had filed earlier in the month, and about an hour before Lewis’ move Tuesday, Daviess County’s Democratic judge-executive, Reid Haire, leapt in to challenge Boswell.

So now, the 2nd District boasts two competitive primaries — Guthrie versus Lewis chief of staff Daniel London for the Republicans and Boswell against Haire for the Democrats — with an open seat as the prize.

“Open seats, that’s what attracts national attention,” said J. Scott Jennings, senior Republican strategist for Louisville-based Peritus Public Relations. “And the way it worked out gives the Republicans a little breathing room. If we had a primary and they didn’t, that would have been a hindrance.”

It remains to be seen how competitive the GOP primary will become after many Republicans expressed disgust at Lewis’ attempt to stealthily slip London in. This comes after Lewis broke his promise to serve only three terms.

“Certainly London and Lewis have run into a wall of upset people they didn't expect,” Jennings said.

The 2008 election could be Democrats’ best chance for a while to capture the 2nd District, which was once solidly Democratic but looks increasingly like Kentucky’s most conservative region. For instance, a Herald-Leader-Action News 36 poll from last fall’s gubernatorial race showed Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher receiving the most support from that area.

“If Democrats win the 2nd it’s going to be a good year for Democrats because it’s the hardest congressional district for them to win in the state,” said Danny Briscoe, a Democratic campaign consultant from Louisville.

The other congressional race that is expected to be expensive, tough and nationally watched will be Louisville’s 3rd District, in which former Republican U.S. Rep. Anne Northup will try to reclaim her seat from Democratic U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth.

Senate race parade

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, millionaire businessman Bruce Lunsford strolled down the Capitol hallway at 3:43 p.m. Tuesday to make a bid to challenge Mitch McConnell, the Republican U.S. Senate leader.

Lunsford, twice spurned by Democratic voters in the 2003 and 2007 governor’s races, must get past seven other Democrats, including another wealthy Louisville businessman, Greg Fischer, and retired Marine Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, now a Louisville lawyer.

“There’s no rock star in that group. They’re all tier three,” said Jennings, the former deputy political director for the White House.

Briscoe said Lunsford has the edge in the primary, especially with nods of approval from national Democrats and Beshear. Fischer, making his first bid for office, isn’t known and it remains to be seen whether Horne can raise enough money to be competitive, Briscoe said.

The presidential election could have a spill-over effect on the U.S. Senate race, depending on which candidates are nominated, he added.

“Kentucky I don’t think is going to vote for Hillary Clinton. And I think they’re going to have a tough time throwing Mitch McConnell out of office because of his seniority, what he’s done for the state,” Briscoe said, citing federal funding for universities and the tobacco buyout bill.

Change or no change?

The state legislative races should produce a smattering of competitive races in both chambers, but political observers say it’s unlikely that either chamber will change hands.

“Democrats are favored to pick up seats in the House. I think they’re a slight favorite to pick up seats in the Senate,” Briscoe said.

The 9th Senate District seat left open by retiring Republican Sen. Richie Sanders of Franklin is the Democrats’ best chance for a pickup, Briscoe said.

In addition, the 1st District in Western Kentucky held by Republican Sen. Ken Winters of Murray has an overwhelming majority of registered Democrats, 56,786 to 15,650.

Former U.S. Rep. Carroll Hubbard, who once served prison time for federal campaign finance violations, and former Kentucky Appeals Court Judge Rick Johnson are vying for the party’s nomination there.

But with Republicans controlling the state Senate 21 to 15 and one independent, Democrats would need more than two pickups to take control — even if they win the open 30th District seat in Tuesday’s special election.

And in the state House, Democrats have put up challengers to almost as many incumbent Republicans as the GOP has to entrenched Democratic representatives. That most likely puts a takeover by the GOP out of reach.