Pol Watchers

Fletchers and Beshears to dine together tonight

Gov. Ernie Fletcher and first lady Glenna Fletcher will host incoming Gov. Steve Beshear and his wife Jane at the newly-renovated governor's mansion tonight.

Glenna Fletcher told reporters at a press conference in the mansion today that she will encourage the Beshears to take the mansion refurbishment to the next phase by re-doing the building's second floor, which is where the governor's living quarters are.

Glenna Fletcher raised nearly $2 million in private donations from companies and individuals across the state to cover the costs of restoring the plaster walls, recovering furniture, purchasing new art, replacing rugs and redecorating, as well as reconstructing the back patio. All of that was done on the first floor, which is open to public tours and houses the governor's receptions.

The second floor, Glenna Fletcher said, is in somewhat of disrepair.

Tonight's dinner will be the first formal meeting between the Fletchers and Beshears since the Nov. 6 election where Beshear, a Democrat, unseated Fletcher, the first Republican governor since 1971.

While Fletcher has offered his personal help and assistance during the transition period, Beshear hasn't sought him out for that yet.

- Ryan Alessi

Consider Kentucky the color purple

By Ryan Alessi
HERALD-LEADER POLITICAL WRITER

FRANKFORT -- Democrats say that last week's election showed that Kentucky has moved across the political color-wheel to become a so-called "blue state."

No, Republicans responded. Voters may have chosen to replace an unpopular GOP governor, but the other results point to the Bluegrass state remaining a hue of bright red, many said.

So which is it?

Well, for now, Kentucky might have to see what goes with the color purple.

The 2008 elections -- in which the presidency, a key U.S. Senate seat and state legislative spots are on the ballot -- might do more toward determining Kentucky's political identity than Tuesday's state office elections.

Then again, Kentucky has long been a political chameleon state. A solid majority of voters are registered Democrats, but many describe themselves as conservatives.

Kentucky has been won by the victorious presidential candidate in every election since 1964. And sometimes it hasn't been by much: Ronald Reagan edged Jimmy Carter in 1980 here by 10,000 votes and Bill Clinton's margin over Bob Dole in 1996 was 13,000.

As for Tuesday, two Republican candidates won statewide office without the party's gubernatorial nominee taking the governor's office for the first time in history. The last time one GOP candidate did it was 1915.

"This is a competitive, two-party, right-of-center state," U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell declared Saturday at the Republican state central committee meeting in Lexington.

And in such swing states, well-run campaigns, credible candidates and compelling messages matter most.

Fletcher began deep in the hole

By Ryan Alessi
RALESSI@HERALD-LEADER.COM

FRANKFORT -- Only three weeks removed from Gov. Ernie Fletcher's 14-point win in the spring GOP primary, his re-election team received empirical proof that the governor had barely a prayer to win a second term.

The campaign's first internal poll taken in early June tested possible negative messages about Democratic challenger Steve Beshear -- he favored casinos, once lobbied for the payday loan industry and worked on the liquidation of Kentucky Central Life Insurance Co. The poll respondents were then read a list of Fletcher's accomplishments and were asked to pick between the two candidates.

Even after laying out the best-case scenario for Fletcher, "we still couldn't get over 44 percent," said Marty Ryall, Fletcher's campaign manager.

That was the hole from which the campaign started.

That poll also revealed that nearly every conventional campaign strategy for an incumbent -- touting accomplishments, attacking the opponent or trying to re-inspire voters -- wouldn't be enough. As political experts have observed, Fletcher was irreparably harmed by fallout from the state hiring investigation.

What the Fletcher campaign did next was a bit unorthodox and more than a little controversial, especially among some of the governor's staunchest allies. The strategy was to change the subject, specifically to the issue of casinos upon which Beshear proudly built his Democratic primary platform.

"If we could make it a referendum on casinos instead of a referendum on the governor, we might have a chance," Ryall said. "We knew it was a long shot."

CONTINUE READING STORY

Fletcher's 'gay card' not a trump

By John Cheves
JCHEVES@HERALD-LEADER.COM

With just days to go until Election Day, Gov. Ernie Fletcher reached into his pocket and pulled out the gay card.

Fletcher and his Republican allies warned voters that Democratic challenger Steve Beshear had gay and lesbian friends, that he backed "every homosexual cause," that he would legalize same-sex marriage, promote adoption by gay couples and put more gay teachers in schools. They even hinted about Beshear and his running mate Daniel Mongiardo personally, calling them "a couple of San Francisco treats."

The gay card seemed to work in Kentucky elections before.

But this time, for Fletcher, it was a losing hand.

Fletcher got clobbered Tuesday. Some undecided voters he hoped to win said they were "disgusted" by his attacks, which included automated phone calls to their homes warning about the homosexual threat.

"It was obviously a last-ditch effort," said Randi DeYoung, a retired schoolteacher in Lexington. A Republican, DeYoung ultimately voted for Beshear. "They should stop nit-picking on these divisive religious things and focus on the real issues, like education."

Fletcher's strategy failed for several reasons, political analysts said.

For one thing, they said, Fletcher might once have been a lay Baptist preacher, but he forfeited his standing as a moral leader during the state hiring investigation. Fletcher and his aides were indicted, prompting him to issue a mass pardon and cut a deal for himself with prosecutors. For another, even his natural allies among religious conservatives said they smelled the sweat of desperation when Fletcher launched his gay-related attacks late in the campaign.

If Fletcher had staunchly opposed same-sex domestic partnership benefits at state universities more than a year ago, for example, he might have found a winning issue, said Kent Ostrander, executive director of the Family Foundation of Kentucky. But Fletcher didn't criticize the benefits until this summer, after it was obvious he trailed Beshear in the polls, Ostrander said.

"Too little, too late," Ostrander said. "He didn't lead throughout his entire term on the values thing."

Others say the gay card simply isn't as potent as it used to be.

CONTINUE READING STORY

Fletcher looks to move to 'private side'

Gov. Ernie Fletcher, a doctor and engineer, said he’s still trying to figure out what he'll do after he leaves office next month.

But he said it's likely to be "in the private side."

Fletcher said he has kept up with most of his medical education requirements during his time in office but would be reluctant to return to practicing medicine -- something he hasn't done full time since before he was elected to Congress in 1998.

"It's almost been 10 years. I'd almost feel compelled to go back and do a small internship to make sure I was up to speed on the latest," he said. "Let's just say if patients came to me, I'd have to refer them a lot more to folks."

Fletcher said he will try to "welcome" President Bush to Kentucky next week as he flies into Louisville for an event in Indiana. He said he would consider, perhaps, a federal job in the Bush administration but is looking more at a private sector job.

"I don't know what is available or out there," he said. "We've got some plans that are in the making in more of the private side of things."

His comments to reporters came after the Republican state central committee meeting Saturday in Lexington, in which Fletcher stressed party unity.

"I wanted to let folks know that we've had some differences in the party but its time to come back and be totally united in the races in the future," he said. "There's no hard feelings from my standpoint."

- Ryan Alessi

Fletcher thanks GOP, calls for unity and no '08 primary

In his final address to the Kentucky Republican Party as governor, Ernie Fletcher took the blame for his loss and urged GOP activists to come back together to help U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell and others in 2008.

He sent a not-so-subtle signal to one of his chief supporters, former GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Forgy, not to jump into the U.S. Senate race against McConnell. Forgy has been floating the idea that he might challenge McConnell in either a Republican primary or as an independent because Forgy says McConnell didn't do enough to help Fletcher get re-elected.

"Ernie Fletcher and Robbie Rudolph will be working for Mitch McConnell and discouraging anyone else from getting into a primary," Fletcher said, referring also to Rudolph, his running mate. "We don't need that."

Fletcher, speaking at the Republican Party state central committee meeting at the Campbell House in Lexington,

"We've had a tremendous four years. It's been a great honor," he said. "We'd do it over again, believe me."

Fletcher remarks, peppered with strong ovations from the GOP crowd, focused on moving on from his electoral loss on Tuesday.

"I can't blame anyone but myself for not getting re-elected," Fletcher said, adding that Kentuckians need to quickly regroup. "Don't be discouraged by what has happened, be emboldened. Don't leave any race uncontested."

SEE TOMORROW'S HERALD-LEADER FOR MORE DETAILS

- Ryan Alessi

Northup speaks

WHAS-TV's Joe Arnold has scored the first post-election interview with Anne Northup, the Louisville Republican who challenged Gov. Ernie Fletcher in the May primary race for governor.

She denies Lexington Republican Larry Forgy's assertion that her primary challenge fractured the Republican Party and contributed to Fletcher's defeat on Tuesday.

(Hat tip: WHAS Political Blog)

- John Stamper

A note about polling

Now that the election results have sunk in, we thought we'd see how they matched up with pre-election polling, including the Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll. Here's how they break down:

With 99.9 percent of precincts reporting, Gov.-elect Steve Beshear got 58.7 percent of the vote, compared to 41.3 percent for Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Beshear's margin of victory was 17.4 points.

The final H-L/WTVQ poll, conducted by Research 2000, showed the race at 55-40, with 5 percent undecided. If you allocate the undecideds based on the ultimate outcome (that's what pollsters tell you to do), our poll would have shown the race at 57.9-42.1, a 15.8 point margin. That puts the H-L/WTVQ poll 1.6 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final Rasmussen Reports poll showed the race at 54-39, with 7 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 58.1-41.9, a 16.2 point margin. That puts the Rasmussen Reports poll 1.2 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final SurveyUSA poll showed the race at 59-39, with 2 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 60.2-39.8, a 20.4 point margin. That puts the SurveyUSA poll 3 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

The final Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll showed the race at 56.2-33.4, with 10.4 percent undecided. With the undecideds allocated, the poll would have shown the race at 62.3-37.7, a 24.6 point margin. That puts the Bluegrass Poll 7.2 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome.

So, Rasmussen was the most accurate poll, followed closely by the H-L/WTVQ poll.

If you're uncomfortable allocating the undecided voters and would rather throw them out, the H-L/WTVQ poll and Rasmussen Reports poll tie as the most accurate. The 15 point margin in those polls was 2.4 percentage points away from the ultimate outcome, compared to 2.6 points for SurveyUSA, and 5.4 points for the Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

Needless to say, we're pleased with the accuracy of our polling and hope to be so lucky next time.

- John Stamper

DGA invests at least $2 million in Kentucky race

The Democratic Governors Association pumped "in the ballpark" of $2 million to $3 million into the Kentucky governor's race mostly through the Bluegrass Freedom Fund, said Nathan Daschle, the DGA's executive director.

The Bluegrass Freedom Fund, a so-called 527 group set up under an IRS loophole commonly used by political activist groups, ran TV ads throughout the fall election calling for ethics reform in Frankfort.

The ads specifically referred back to the state hiring investigation that plagued Gov. Ernie Fletcher's administration, resulting in a grand jury indicting 15 people, including the governor and prompting Fletcher to issue pardons his aides.

Daschle wouldn't reveal the specific total of how much the DGA pumped into the race. But in a conference call with national reporters Wednesday morning, he said they sought to spend "significant sums" in Kentucky because it was the party's "number one priority" race.

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, the DGA chairwoman, said on the conference call that, overall, the DGA surpassed its traditional "off-year" fund-raising goal of $9 million in 2007.

In contrast, the Republican Governors Association, raised more than $11 million this year, but ran less than a month's worth of TV ads on Fletcher's behalf in September. The RGA mostly focused on keeping the governor's office in Mississippi and picking up the post in Louisiana -- the other two governors races this year.

- Ryan Alessi

National figures weigh in on KY election

A host of national political players added their voices to the various analysts and officials who have commented on yesterday's election.

That included the chairwoman of the Democratic Governors Association, the Republican National Committee chairman who hails from Kentucky, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, union leaders and even a presidential contender. They offered words of praise for Democratic governor-elect Steve Beshear and consolation for Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

Here are some statements e-mailed to reporters last night and this morning:

• Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York: “I want to congratulate Steve Beshear on a hard-fought victory. I know he will provide the strong, new leadership that Kentucky needs."
• RNC Chair, Robert "Mike" Duncan of Kentucky: "Democrats targeted Ernie Fletcher from day one, but even with the unique circumstances of the governor’s race, they could not stand in the way of the Republican Party’s fundamental strength in the state.  Voters in Kentucky will continue to support lower taxes, limited government, strong national defense, and individual responsibility."
• DGA Chair, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius: “Steve brought forth a message of restoring honesty and integrity to government, and voters overwhelmingly responded to his brand of leadership.  We look forward to welcoming him to the ranks of Democratic governors."
• McConnell, the U.S. Senate Republican leader: "Ernie Fletcher ran a hard-fought campaign that showed a deep commitment to the Commonwealth and to the principles that propelled him into office four years ago. He lost the race, but won our respect by fighting hard to build on the achievements of his term — achievements that will benefit Kentucky for many years to come."
• Kentucky AFL-CIO president Bill Londrigan: "Working people seized the opportunity to elect a governor who understands how difficult it is to make a paycheck stretch from month to month. That's why union families mobilized at workplaces, in neighborhoods, and in communities to get out the vote."
  

- Ryan Alessi