SurveyUSA: Beshear up by 20 in final poll

WHAS-TV in Louisville reports this morning that Democrat Steve Beshear leads Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher by 20 points in a SurveyUSA poll released one day before voters cast their ballots.

The automated phone survey of 552 likely voters shows Beshear getting support from 59 percent of those surveyed, compared to 39 percent for Fletcher. Two percent were undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

SurveyUSA concludes its analysis of the race with this nugget: "Because 5 competing pollsters worked the contest, and all have published results showing the Democrat with a commanding lead, the margin of victory for Beshear may be less than 20 points on Election Day, to the extent Democrats take victory for granted and fail to turnout."

Last week, SurveyUSA showed Beshear with a 24 point lead. The prior week, they pegged the race at 20 points. A Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll taken two weeks ago showed Beshear with a 15 point lead.

- John Stamper

Comments

but for the "Fat lady's singing", it's all over!

http://osi-speaks.blogspot.com/2007/11/final-surveyusa-poll-finds-beshear.html#links

[Hazel]

Would anyone care to make a guess at what time (eastern standard time) the election will be called in favor of Governor-elect Beshear?

I'll be conservative and say 40 minutes after the polls close in the western of half the state.

Any takers?

Hazel, aka.................

Who is making the sladerous recorded phone calls about Beshear? Is it Fletcher's campaign or the Republican Party? Whoever it is, it's a disgrace that a politician would stoop so low.

[Eric]

I got that phone call today. I don't think the Fletcher Campaign would have anything to do with this, but it was obviously an effort to highlight Beshear's endorsement by the Fairness Alliance. (Although when does that become Slander?)

Rather than a campaign, this was probably a private effort from a conservative church/family organization. Too little, too late.