SurveyUSA: Fletcher and Beshear maintain lead

SurveryUSA and WHAS-TV in Louisville have new poll results today that show little change from last week, when Gov. Ernie Fletcher and Lexington attorney Steve Beshear held solid leads in the Republican and Democratic primaries for governor.

On the Republican side, Mark Hebert of WHAS reports that Paducah businessman Billy Harper picked up 3 points, while Fletcher and Northup remained unchanged. For Democrats, former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry dropped one point and Lexington attorney Gatewood Galbraith picked up two points.

The poll numbers continue to suggest that a runoff election is likely in the Democratic primary and possible in the Republican primary. A runoff election between the top two vote-getters of each primary will be held on June 26 if no candidate gets at least 40 percent of the vote.

Here's a breakdown:

REPUBLICANS

• Ernie Fletcher - 44 percent
• Anne Northup - 34 percent
• Billy Harper - 17 percent
• Undecided - 5 percent

DEMOCRATS

• Steve Beshear - 32 percent
• Bruce Lunsford- 23 percent
• Steve Henry - 17 percent
• Jody Richards - 12 percent
• Gatewood Galbraith - 7 percent
• Otis Hensley - 1 percent
• Undecided - 6 percent

Click here for full details from SurveyUSA.

- John Stamper

Comments

Well, looking at the SurveyUSA track record for accuracy ... Looks like we WILL in deed have a run off ...

I won't vote for Beshear ever ...
I am sorry to see he has such a good shot at going into November, because if he does actually make it on the ballot in November I will be forced to cast my first vote ever for a republican.

Gatewood has my vote tomorrow!

[Steve Magruder (I, not D or R)]

I think we should remember that when turnout is expected to be low, and the fields are as wide as this, wild swings in the actual vote are highly probable.

GOTV and strength of support are vital to each and every campaign.

I think Beshear is going to get near or above 40% due to Lunsford's and Henry's soft support.

I think Northup is going to do better than expected because of her strong GOTV machine, and the large law-and-order anti-criminal contingent who is tired of the embarrassment of Fletcher. She may not win, but she'll get close.

Steve

you may be close in your prediction. My prediction is that it will be Fletcher and Beshear, with Beshear having to win it in a run off.

My family will cast 9 votes for Steve Beshear.

Steve

you may be close in your prediction. My prediction is that it will be Fletcher and Beshear, with Beshear having to win it in a run off.

[Me]

I think Henry has more hard supporters than you might think. Having a former Miss America as your wife gains support.

[Luther Jean]

Stateworkers and teachers will be casting many votes for anyone but Fletcher.

I think that everyone is under estimating the support that Billy Harper is gaining. Plus, as mentioned before, the GOTV program will determine the outcome and Harper's GOTV is top notch! I don't know if anyone else on this bias blog reads the Harper emails that he sends out but they have gained numerous endorsements and are riding the wave HIGH!

Luther Jean,

1:46 -- Don't be so sure.

Signed, State worker - whose spouse is a Frankfort school teacher.

P.S. If it ends up between Fletcher & Beshear; Fletcher wins HANDS DOWN!!

[DemforChange]

Luther Jean: I hope you're right about the state workers. Although over the past three years I've heard a lot of state workers say they voted for Fletcher but never will again, lately I've been hearing things along the lines of:

"Well, I hate him of course, but I really like my (non-merit) boss, and if Fletcher wins, he'll keep his job and that will make my life easier."

Never underestimate people's fear of change, or the effect of Stockholm Syndrome.

1:48 - I don't get anything from Harper directly, but what I read about him I do like. If I were registered Republican, I would vote for him tomorrow.

I am registered Democrat and unfortunately we have a pitiful slate of dems before us ... with the exception of Gatewood.

[Doris]

This family will vote for Gatewood tomorrow. He says he doesnt owe any favors to big time supporters and I believe him.

We will not vote for Steve Beshear even if he wins the Dem nomination; Mr. Fletcher has lost a lot of Republican supporters especially those in Washington so he's gained respect from me.

I'm a Democrat can't you tell?

Doris

Harper's GOTV??

If you consider putting yardsigns up in right of ways GOTV then yeah, he has a great ground game.

5+ Million Dollars and Ross Perot can't poll out of the teens. Way to go bud.

Demforchange, Are you saying what all state workers have KNOWN for the last 30 years? You are finally admiting without saying it in so many words, that Fletcher did what all the dem govs before him did and what dem govs after him will do ...

Take out merit & non-merit "bosses" to put their own political buddies in? Kind of exactly what Beshear said he would do for Miller when Beshear said, he will do his "DEAD LEVEL BEST" to find Miller a job in his Administration.

My, my what webs we try to break free of.

I don't have to be a Fletcher fan to see that all this blah blah about Fletcher was way over done and way out of proportion. How many merit employees lost their job under Fletcher? How many merit employees lost their jobs over the 30 years before Fletcher under different Dem govs?

Merit employees have held their breath during every single democrat put in Frankfort ... I know bec. I am a state MERIT employee and my father was before me.

I will also vote for Fletcher in November if it is Beshear for the Dems.

I have heard a rumor that Northup is having to pay GOTV workers to come out from university of kentucky college republicans to do stuff for her... is there really no one who supporters her...

I will also vote for Fletcher in November if it is Beshear for the Dems.

[DemforChange]

2:00. In his settlement agreement with the Attorney General, Fletcher admitted he violated state merit law by firing merit employees for political reasons.

What every governor since Louie Nunn has done legally is replace non-merit employees with their own political loyalists.

That is not only legal and politically smart, it is the administratively effective thing to do.

Non-merit staff have always held temporary appointments, lasting only until the end of the administration under which they were appointed.

That's the difference between merit and non-merit staff.

The only difference today - and since 1999, when Patton was re-elected - is that governors can succeed themselves, so merit appointees have the chance to serve eight years instead of just four.

Replacing non-merit appointees of the previous governor is the responsible thing for a new governor to do.

Firing merit employees for their political affiliations is a crime.

A crime Fletcher committed, as he publicly admitted in a legal document which he signed.

[Steve Magruder (I, not D or R)]

It's amazing that anyone would vote for the criminal Fletcher over Beshear, or even a ham sandwich.

OK, let's say Fletcher gets 45% of the GOP vote. OK, he has 45% of 1/3 of the electorate locked up for November. Everyone else, Democrats, Independents and many Republicans, simply aren't voting for Criminal Ernie in November.

[Regular Voter]

There is one capable and honest man in the race for Governor and that is Speaker of the House Jody Richards. Legislatures in other states have sought out his assistance in developing education reforms. What he lacks in charisma he makes up in substance.

[Frank S.]

The 10 Commandments are set in stone and Beshear or Miller will not take them down. Let those who wish spill there hard earned cash on the slot machines and drink, but the commandments will stand. Let them ramp and rave over the sins and waste of gamble but the commandments will stand. And let those who vote for those that want to bring harm to little children with gamble and machines I will pray for. Thank You.

[Steff B]

I predict that there will be a runoff in both parties and that it will be close for the top two in each party. The USA/WHAS poll is no better than throwing darts on a wall. The undecided are at an all time high in both camps. Some will not vote at all and alot will change there minds, but after tommorrows counting it will be very close.

The Kentucky Post reports today that Beshear will win in a run off and beat Ernie bad in the fall . Check out their web site for the story.

And when did the Ky Post become such a crystal ball??? Now that is a whole lot of bull crap. The only thing they are right about is the runoff. I predict that Otis will win by a landslide and there will be no runoff and Ernie will get real afraid and thing the end of the world is comming and Gatewood will sneak in with a big joint and take over. This talk is as crazy as what the guy above just said.

[P.S. Dept]

bad time to peak mr beshear

Hey 5:23

The truth, the truth, YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!! Ha ,ha,ha,ha,ha

It is amazing that a person who proclaims to be a Baptist Minister can continue to pull the wool over so many people's eyes. The recent actions of this setting Governor are very disturbing. Does anyone reading this post believe that if they were to purchase a 15 million dollar jet and owed 1.1 million dollars in taxes and penalties, that Ernie Fletcher would allow you to only pay $300,000. and call it even so long as you contribute $100,000. to his legal defense fund? Well that is the case with blacktop Mogul Leonard Lawson. The said thing is none of us have that kind of money to influence a governor. No we are stuck paying sales tax on $20,000. cars and clothing and not even expecting such a break. So why should middle class Kentuckians be subjected to covering the cost of such a political scandal? Because Ernie Fletcher says so.... If Fletcher receives the nomination on Tuesday it will be very likely that he will leave the Mansion at the end of the year and go straight to house arrest or jail. But in any event Ernie Fletcher the self-righteous person that he is will Fall and it will be by the grace of morally sound Republicans.

I'm sure the Beshear campaign is grateful for the preview of the attack-lines this summer and fall. If the 10 Commandments and gambling attacks are the best the opponents can think up he wins in a walk.

The 10 Commandments issue was decided 20 years ago - he upheld the law and the ruling of the Supreme Court. If a new Court rules that they go back up then he'll enforce that all the same.

The gambling issue is already decided. Just preventing Kentucky casinos doesn't stop one gambler from driving over a bridge and gambling in another state. Kentuckians are pragmatic and if given the chance to vote up or down on the issue, casinos will win in a landslide.

It won't take many ads reminding Kentuckians that Fletcher held a strange cult-of-personality pep rally for his pre-emptive pardons for crying out loud. That is not gubernatorial that is dysfunctional.

Beshear will have loads of fun replaying that footage for everyone to cringe at; for those that haven't seen it Fletcher comes across like a hilarious, discredited, mid-century autocrat.

7:15--if there is any way to confirm that $100,000 bribe before the election, it'd be a landslide for Fletcher's opponent. But even if that doesn't come out until January, that very well might violate federal criminal laws.

By the way, Fletcher took $7,000 in contributions from another Lawson related group for that asphalt plant--the one that Fletcher's administration approved within days of receiving the $7,000, and the damned plant is right next to a subdivision of several hundred London residents. They're all furious, because it all came out.

John Stamper wrote a very interesting article summing it all up in today's Herald.

ANOTHER REPUBLICAN FOR:

BILLY HARPER

[Bambie]

You will have to pry the 10 commandments from my cold dead hands steve beshear and john miller.

[Steff B]

It was not Lawson or Mt enterprises it was Kay and Kay, sorry about your luck you demo looser.

Billy Harper will always be remembered as the man who gave Republicans no chance to win in November.

1:51 Frankfort person.....you have got to be kidding...where are you hiding...way out in the "kuntry" somewhere....

If you are a "D" and live in Frankfort...NO WAY should you be for Ernie...I know that there a few out there, but you all will be gone this December....

[Doris]

Wheee! I'm so glad tomorrow is THE DAY.
I've heard enough.

Gatewood will get my vote.

I'm against EXPANDED GAMING because of the other social problems it creates. Not for religious reasons. Also, I believe that only a handful of people will benefit from the revenue....fatter purses for winners..Thoroughbred racing winners and election winners and their cronies.

Bet it is the last we hear about getting Health Care - Education - and pot holes in the roads fixed on the outer edges of bedroom communities....etc. The winners will be so busy paying back big $$ supporters ---all of them are just like "Ernie" and one is enough!

[James H]

7:23, since when is Kay & Kay Contracting part of the Leonard Lawson empire? I am afraid that unless you have the facts to back it up, you are speaking out of turn, since it is unlikely you know any of the businesses. In addition, Kay & Kay properly applied for their Clean Air permit and state engineers, not Ernie Fletcher approved the application. It's sad that Northup has nothing in her campaign but to make this a campaign issue in the 11th hour.

Bambie, I hope you have another gig lined up for after tomorrow, because Lunsford isn't going to be able to pay you for more lame posts!

Check with Ernie, he may find a spot for you for a while. At least til November.

[HomeSkillet]

Go Anne!!!

9:56--

How would you feel if you had an asphalt plant stuck in your backyard immediately after Ernie rakes in $7,000 in money from the plant owner?

I'd be like several hundred folks down in London: Mad as hell, and ready to get a little payback at the voting booth tomorrow.

How many merit employees lost their job under Fletcher?

I can answer that question -- ZERO!!!

(Mike Duncan was on probation and doesn't count...)

Signed, a state merit worker who voted for EF twice in '03 and will again twice in '07.

DemforChange @ 3:23 -- What you wrote is a flat out lie. Your description of the deal is a lie.

NONE OF WHAT YOU CLAIM FLETCHER AGREED TO IS THE TRUTH.

You are an untruthful person.

Say "hello" to your leader Nickolas at the bank as he cashes the checks Anne Norhtup's camp has been paying him - that allow him to put a small dent in that HUGE tax debt to the State Revenue.

[Bill Zimmerman]

Why hasn't the media picked up on Daniel Mongiardo's affair with a 17 year old?

11:36 - Oh, that is an easy question to answer. They haven't printed anything about Mongiardo's affection toward really really young girls because the newspapers have endorsed him & his running mate.

The HL was most likely going to endorse Miller then Miller quit because the public couldn't stand him as Treasurer so he actually started dropping in the polls from 8% to 7% when Miller finally decided to be a quitter and dropped out. After he told the world he'd vote Beshear and after Beshear then told the world he'd give Miller a job in his administration the HL naturally had to back the new ticket :

Beshear/Miller/Mongiardo. I wonder how Mongiardo likes taking the back seat?

[dingojoe]

I guess the media hasn't reported it because, though they aren't the greatest bastions of truth and integrity, they still rank well above the dregs of internet message boards.

Northup in May -- ABE in November if necessary

1 Vote for Beshear today and 1 Vote for Beshear this fall.

[kybigboy]

One vote for Ernie Fletcher today and one vote for Fletcher and 4 more years in November. Goodbye old retread democrats.

[JW]

5/21/07 10:22, It's stranger still that one of the donors from Kay & Kay was one of those who was "wronged" by Fletcher during the merit investigation. Looks like the guy is really getting even with Fletcher by contributing to his re-election campaign. The local residents need to follow the proper channels for complaining, just like the company did when applying to open an asphalt plant. Yes, the plant is in the area of subdivisions and schools and yes, the particulate release is below the minimum standards required under state clean air guidelines, but everything was done in accordance to the law. Quit blaming Fletcher for everything because it doesn't suit your agenda. How many jobs have been created during the last four years? How is the state's budget? How much more could have been done for the betterment of the state had the governor's attentions not been drawn to Greg Stumbo? One can only hope the next governor, especially a Democrat receives the same "fair" shake that Fletcher received.

If Annie Northup is governor and Little Jackie Conway is AG ... well, they have a personal history because Annie beat Little Jackie one year for her congressional seat. If you thought Stumbo was after Fletcher, well that'll be peanuts compared to what Little Jackie Conway will do to a Northup administration.

Personally i'm voting for Stan Lee.

[Bob]

Just cast my vote for Gatewood!!