Rothenberg's election night viewer guide heavy on KY races

The Rothenberg Political Report offers its readers an Election Night Viewer Guide today that is heavy on Kentucky races. Here's what political editor Nathan Gonzales suggests national viewers will learn from Congressional races in the Bluegrass State.

Kentucky 4 – Rep. Geoff Davis (R) is running for a second term in a heavily Republican district that voted 63% for President Bush. Combined GOP spending has overwhelmed former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) and the Democrats in the final weeks. If Davis loses, even with the nature of the district and an overwhelming financial edge, the GOP majority is in serious jeopardy.

Kentucky 3 - Rep. Anne Northup (R) is facing yet another challenge in her Louisville-based district. Northup's district is certainly more Democratic than the 4th District (John Kerry took 51%), but it looks like she'll go into Election Night with a narrow lead, but under 50%. If she loses, that means undecided voters are breaking heavily and convincingly for the Democrats and other battle-tested incumbents like Clay Shaw (Florida 22) and Heather Wilson (New Mexico 1) are in a lot of trouble.

Kentucky 2 – If state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) defeats Rep. Ron Lewis (R), Democrats are in for a huge night. The 2nd District voted overwhelmingly (65%) for President Bush in 2004 and it would bring a whole series of heavily Republican districts into play. A loss would be particularly troubling since Lewis doesn't have the burden of personal or ethical baggage, just the weight of President Bush.

Meanwhile, the National Journal suggests in new rankings released today that KY 3 is now Kentucky's most competitive race. The paper says KY 3 is the 36th most likely seat to change control, down from 34th a week ago. It ranks KY 4 at 37th, down from 30th a week ago.

- John Stamper

The Cook Political Report still lists KY 3 and KY 4 as toss-ups. It lists KY-2 as lean Republican.

Comments

[Kenneth Stepp]

I haven't seen any polls on KY-5, but we'll see tonight. Please vote. Kenneth Stepp, the Democratic candidate for U.S. HOuse, KY-05 http://www.steppforcongress.blogspot.com