Polling for Weaver and Lewis show opposite trends

BREAKING NEWS ... UPDATED ...

Polling commissioned through the Kentucky Democratic Party and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee now shows Democratic state Rep. Mike Weaver, a retired Army Colonel, leading Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis by three points in the 2nd congressional district. That poll shows that 46 percent of likely voters say they plan to vote for Weaver, compared to 43 percent for Lewis.

UPDATE 5:48 p.m.: Republican tracking numbers, however, show Lewis is opening up a substantial lead on Weaver, according to a memo by Washington-based firm Voter Consumer Research. That polling memo shows that between Oct. 29 and 31, Lewis had a 14 point lead over Weaver after a survey of 450 likely voters. Lewis led 55 percent to Weaver's 35 percent in a tracking poll of 150 voters Tuesday night. The margin of error is 4.6 percent.

In the Democrats' poll, Weaver's  slim 3-point lead is within the 4.9 percent margin of error of the poll, which was conducted between Oct. 26 and 29 by Lauer Research Inc. Those results represent the first time Weaver has been ahead in a poll during the race, which has become increasingly contentious even though the 2nd district remains the most supportive area of Republicans in the state. Voters there backed Bush in 2004 with more than 65 percent of the vote, the largest margin for any of Kentucky's congressional districts.

The Lauer memo says of the voters polled, 56% were registered Democrats  and 41% were Republicans. The memo said likely voters seem to be breaking toward Weaver in the final days. "Incumbent Ron Lewis, on the other hand, is receiving a very weak score for his performance as Congressman. In all only 41% say he's doing an excellent job, while 50% rate his performance negatively (either 'only fair' or 'poor')," the memo says.

In comparison, the Lewis tracking poll memo says he has "a 53% favorable and 31% unfavorable rating from voters in the 2nd District with only 15% without an impression of him." Weaver, meanwhile, shows a 37% favorable and 25% unfavorable rating with 37% having no opinion, the memo adds.

Lewis said after an event in Radcliff with first lady Laura Bush that he feels confident about his race and the Republicans' chances overall of keeping control of the U.S. House in next week's election.

"I think things are really starting to move very strongly in our direction," he said. 

See tomorrow's Herald-Leader for a detailed look at both Weaver and Lewis' campaigns from the trail.

- Ryan Alessi

Comments

[Thinkaboutit]

Lewis does not lead by 14. The race is a dead heat and is trending (hard) towards Weaver.

Exhibit 1: Laura Bush has gone only to districts where the races where neck and neck.

Exhibit 2: The DCCC is running ads for Weaver in the district.

Laura and Ron aren't old high school pals and Rahm Emanuel of the DCCC ain't spending his money in KY02 because he thinks a lot of Etown.

This one is going to the wire. From 27 down the Colonel may shock the Bluegrass next Tuesday!

Oh, it is OK. Apparently Alessi and co. are afraid they will be caught on the wrong side Tuesday. They are just hedging their bets. Sure, it sucks but life goes on after Nov. 7th for journalists and lobbyists.

[Sam Wise]

Exactly my thoughts, Thinkaboutit...

[DemforChange]

Even though these are both party polls as opposed to independent polls, there's an easy way to tell which one is more reliable: the one publicized by the party that has a six-year record of constant, psychopathic, blatant lying even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary is probably not the poll you want to put any faith in.

And Ryan, sweetie: Voters in KY-2 did not back Bush BY more than 65 percent, unless the final tally was 83-17. They backed him WITH more than 65 percent. Election numbers are going to get ugly enough on Tuesday - let's keep our percents straight.