Analysis of KY Congressional races

By John Stamper
Herald-Leader Frankfort Bureau

In a powerful rebuke of President George W. Bush and his Iraq war policies, voters in Louisville turned out Republican U.S. Rep. Anne Northup in favor of Democrat John Yarmuth, founder of an alternative weekly newspaper.

Analysts said last night that Northup, who has represented Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District for a decade, couldn’t successfully distance herself from the Bush administration.

“There is a very unpopular war going on, and it is the elephant in the room,” said Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe. “She supported Bush and his position on the war and Yarmuth didn’t. It’s that simple.”

Republican incumbents in Kentucky’s two other competitive congressional races, the 4th District in Northern Kentucky and the 2nd District in west-central Kentucky, retained their seats.

U.S Rep. Geoff Davis, R-Hebron, bested Democratic challenger and former congressman Ken Lucas in the 4th District, which stretches along the Ohio River from the Louisville suburbs to the West Virginia border and as far south as northern Scott County.

“The Democrats missed an opportunity,” Briscoe said. “Lucas did not run a good campaign. He was woefully underfunded.”

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis won comfortably over Democratic challenger Mike Weaver, a retired Army colonel, in the 2nd District, which stretches from Owensboro east to Shelbyville and south to Bowling Green.

As the state’s most conservative district — more than 65 percent of voters supported Bush in 2004 — it was somewhat surprising to analysts that Weaver was able to mount a reasonably competitive challenge.

“The interesting thing to watch is whether there is any long-term damage done to Lewis or if this was just a national tide,” said Scott Lasley, assistant professor of political science at Western Kentucky University.

In Louisville, Northup tried to distance herself from the Bush administration by calling for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and snubbing the president when he made a campaign stop in an Indiana town 10 miles north of Louisville. In past elections, she invited Bush to stump for her in the district.

“She sort of had to switch gears in this election and try to separate herself from Bush,” said Donald Gross, a University of Kentucky political science professor.

While Northup ran from Bush, Yarmuth called for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq and embraced former President Bill Clinton, who headlined an Oct. 24 fund raiser for the Kentucky Democratic Party in Louisville.

Yarmuth becomes the state’s second Democratic congressman, joining U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Versailles, who represents the 6th District that includes Lexington.

“I can’t tell you how excited I am to have some company,” said Chandler, who is a possible contender for governor next year. “That’s a plus for me and it’s a plus for me staying in Washington, but I want to wait and see what happens through the rest of the night.”

Even before her defeat, Northup’s name was mentioned as a possible challenger to Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher in the May primary.

For much of the election season, Yarmuth was viewed by national Democrats as a sub-par candidate whose past statements in a litany of newspaper columns made him unelectable.

Northup, who likely outspent Yarmuth by a 2-1 margin, launched several ads that used Yarmuth’s own words against him, including statements in columns run in his Louisville Eccentric Observer about abolishing Social Security, raising payroll taxes and removing “Under God” from the Pledge of Allegiance.

When it became clear those ads wouldn’t be enough to demolish Yarmuth, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running advertisements on his behalf.

While State Republican Party Chairman Darrell Brock attributed Northup’s loss entirely to a “national tide,” some believe that Yarmuth’s victory is indicative of a Democratic rebound in the state, which has trended Republican in the past decade.

“It may be the case that the Democrats are finally beginning to adjust to the new terrain more effectively,” Gross said. “The Democrats may be finally starting to come back into the game.”

Comments

[Robert]

I really wish the H-L would quit using Danny Briscoe as a political consultant. And if they use him, they should quit referring to him as a "Democratic" political consultant. He's very moderate and doesn't have much good to say about Democrats.

[DemforChange]

Note that the only viable democrat to beat a republican incumbent for U.S. House in Kentucky was also the only viable democrat who ran as an unabashed liberal/progressive. The two Democrats-in-Name-Only who ran as republican-lite (Weaver and Lucas) lost and lost big.

Same story all across the country. DINO Ben Chandler and his fellow Blue Dogs better get used to having progressives run things from now on.

Democrats have forgotten the essential political lesson Harry Truman tried to teach them 60 years ago:

"If you give people the choice between a real republican and a democrat pretending to be a republican, they'll choose the real republican every time."